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Are Pakistan and Sri Lanka still able to get to the semifinals?


Is there still a chance for Sri Lanka to qualify?

Sri Lanka is in the same boat as Pakistan and the Netherlands with four points from six games. They’re not quite out of it yet, but the situation is dire. Mathematically, two teams could still finish with 12 or more points, and up to seven teams could finish with 8 points, vying for two berths.

This implies that Pakistan, the Netherlands, and Sri Lanka—who may still win with ten points—are in the running. The likelihood of them moving on is very low, though, considering how badly they’ve performed thus far and the fact that two of their three remaining games are against India and New Zealand.

To what extent did Afghanistan’s win increase their chances of being among the top four?

Afghanistan’s victory over Sri Lanka has given them six points from as many games so far; if they win their final three games, they will have twelve. They will have a good chance if they reach 12 points because only four other teams can score 12 or more. Their next opponent is the Netherlands, whom they will want to defeat on Friday, although their previous two games were against South Africa and Australia. If other outcomes go their way, even 10 points might offer them a chance.

Afghanistan’s current NRR of -0.718, however, may come back to haunt them if it comes to net run rates, as the top four teams all have NRRs of more than 0.95.

What are Pakistan’s prospects versus Bangladesh on Tuesday?

Although Pakistan’s campaign has been forgettable thus far, if other results go their way, they still have a mathematical chance of placing in the top four, or perhaps third. They are unable to match India’s 12, but run rates may be the deciding factor if at least one of Australia, New Zealand, or South Africa loses a few games and doesn’t reach 10.

There’s a chance for the aforementioned eight-point battle, even if Pakistan loses.

Is 14 points going to be sufficient to qualify?

Indeed, since only Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and India are able to finish with 14 or more points. Thus, India will guarantee their place in the semi-finals with a victory over Sri Lanka on Thursday.

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