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How Sri Lanka, Zimbabwe, the Netherlands, and Scotland can get to the 2023 World Cup

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West Indies lost to Scotland, so they are no longer in the running to go to the ODI World Cup, which will be held in India later this year. Now, Sri Lanka, Zimbabwe, Scotland, and the Netherlands are all fighting for the two spots. Here’s what each of these teams needs to do to finish in the top two:

Sri Lanka

3 plays, 6 points, 1.832 NRR
Remaining matches: Zimbabwe, West Indies

Sri Lanka will be sure to qualify if they beat Zimbabwe on Sunday. Only one of Zimbabwe or Scotland can get to eight points, and they are playing each other, so only one of them can get to eight points. Sri Lanka can still qualify even if they lose to Zimbabwe, as long as they beat West Indies in their last match on July 7. Zimbabwe and Scotland can also end up with eight points, but Sri Lanka should advance because their net run rate of 1.832 is so good.

But if Sri Lanka loses both of their games, Zimbabwe and Scotland can both finish above them with eight points.

Zimbabwe

3 plays, 6 points, 0.752 NRR.
Sri Lanka and Scotland are the only teams left.

Zimbabwe has won all three of its games so far, just like Sri Lanka. However, their run rate isn’t as good as Sri Lanka’s, which makes them more vulnerable on NRR. For example, even if they beat Sri Lanka, they could still miss out if they lost to Scotland. This would happen if Scotland won their last game and finished with eight points, and if Sri Lanka beat West Indies.

Zimbabwe’s net run rate (NRR) is currently 0.752. However, if they beat Sri Lanka by one run and lose to Scotland by 40 (both teams scoring 300 in the first game), their NRR will drop to 0.281, which Scotland can beat. But if they beat Scotland on Tuesday, they will definitely qualify, no matter what happens on Sunday against Sri Lanka.

Scotland

Played 3 times, got 4 points, NRR = 0.188
Zimbabwe and the Netherlands are the only teams left.

Scotland is still in the running because of their dominant win over West Indies. Not only have they gotten two more points, but their NRR has also gone up to 0.188. If they win their last two games, they will have eight points. If Sri Lanka beats Zimbabwe on Sunday, that will be enough to get them into the tournament. If Zimbabwe wins that game, all three teams could end up with eight runs, which would make run rates important.

Their next game is on Tuesday against Zimbabwe, and they have to win. If they lose, they won’t be able to catch up to Zimbabwe in terms of points, and even if they lose both and stay at six points, Sri Lanka will almost certainly finish better in terms of net run rate (NRR).

Netherlands

3 plays, 2 points, -0.560 NRR.
Oman and Scotland are the only teams left.

Netherlands needs to win both of their games by big scores and finish with six points. They also need a lot of other things to go their way. Their best chance is for Sri Lanka to make it and for them, Zimbabwe, and Scotland to fight it out for second place.

To give you an idea of how close the games are, Netherlands will move ahead of Zimbabwe on NRR if they win their last two games by a total of 90 runs and Zimbabwe loses their last two by the same amount (with first-innings scores of 250).

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