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There are four contenders vying for the final two Champions Trophy places

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Naturally, the top four spots are the main emphasis as the final league stage games of the 2023 ODI World Cup get near. But just for the top six groups. The competition to place among the top eight and earn a spot in the 2025 Champions Trophy is on for the remaining competitors. Six teams, or those with eight points or more, have already guaranteed their spots. Pakistan is among them; they would have qualified as hosts anyhow. Here’s where the other four are positioned.

Holland
Points 4, Played 7, NRR -1.398
Matches left: against England and India

Netherlands will guarantee qualifying if they win their final two games and finish with eight points. They will end on six points if they defeat India and defeat England. If they win their final two games, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh can tie the score. The final factor will be net run-rates, which might not be in the Netherlands’ favor. Even if they defeat England by 100 runs (after scoring 300), their current NRR of -1.398 will only increase to -0.955. Which two teams advance will thereafter be decided by the margins of the other results.

Netherlands will have difficulty qualifying if they lose their two remaining games. It could be difficult for Netherlands to finish with a better NRR than two of those teams, even if the other three teams lose their final games and remain at four points. Then, everything will depend on the margins of the results.

United Kingdom
Points 2; Played 7; NRR -1.504
Matches remaining: against Pakistan and the Netherlands

There is still something to play for even though the reigning champions have had an awful season. Champions Trophy qualification remains at stake. However, even if they win their next two games, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka could possibly tie them for first place on six points, so they will still need assistance from other teams. With their current dismal NRR of -1.504, England will need to win, and they will need to win by significant margins.

If England loses to the Netherlands, they will need to defeat Pakistan and hope that Bangladesh and Sri Lanka drop their remaining games to maintain their four-point lead. The race for one berth will then come down to NRR between Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and England.

Sri Lankan
8 Played, 4 Points, -1.160 NRR
Match remaining: against New Zealand

The wisest course of action for Sri Lanka is to defeat New Zealand and then hope that just one other side, at most, advances to the finals. (In theory, if England wins its next two games, Bangladesh defeats Australia, and the Netherlands defeats India, all four teams may end with six points.) With their comparatively high NRR, Sri Lanka ought to be in a really strong position after winning.

If they lose to New Zealand, they will have to hope that two other teams don’t get to the six-point mark and that other outcomes go their way.

Bangladesh: 8 Played, 4 Points, -1.142 NRR
Match remaining: Australia versus.

While Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are in comparable positions, their net rating differential (NRR) now stands at the top of the four teams vying for the final two spots. Their greatest chance, like Sri Lanka’s, will be to defeat Australia and finish with six points. They won’t be eliminated if they place fourth, but several other outcomes must go their way.

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