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For weeks before the 2022 NFL Draft, Aidan Hutchinson seemed to be a lock to go with the first overall pick to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Then the betting world tipped off everyone else that Travon Walker would be the Jaguars' pick. The odds shifted in a big way from Hutchinson to Walker a few days before the draft. Walker ended up being the top pick (though the Jaguars probably should have picked Hutchinson after all).
It doesn't seem like there will be any last-minute drama like that with the first few picks of this year's NFL Draft.
The odds on the first few picks, and most of the first 10 picks, seem to be fairly well set. There was some drama earlier this month when Travis Hunter took over as the favorite to go second overall, but it doesn't seem we'll get any more big changes like that. But with the draft, you never know.
Based on the odds from BetMGM as they stand hours before the draft, here is a mock draft of the top 10 picks, selecting the favorite at each slot:
It's surprising the odds for the first pick are still on the board. Ward is -10000, a massive favorite. Unless someone is willing to bet $10,000 to win $100, there's no reason to even keep it up. Ward will be the first overall pick, barring one of the biggest surprises in draft history. There has been no indication for months that the Titans plan to do anything but draft Ward.
For a long time Abdul Carter was the favorite to go second overall, but when it flipped to Hunter it completely flipped. Now Hunter is a big -2500 favorite to go second. That's up from -1000 earlier this week. As Yahoo Sports' Charles Robinson pointed out on the "Inside Coverage" podcast, once a general manager compares a player to Shohei Ohtani, he is a good bet to draft him.
If Ward and Hunter are off the board, Carter is the obvious pick at No. 3 (note that BetMGM's odds are for a player going in a specific spot; if the Giants trade the pick and Carter is still selected third, the bet cashes). The Giants are strong on the defensive line but there's no need for them to get tricky. Carter is a -2000 favorite, up from -650 a few days ago.
The betting market seems to believe it has the first four picks down cold. Campbell is a huge -800 favorite to go fourth. The odds have been steadily moving to near lock territory on that prop. The LSU offensive tackle is a good fit for need. The Patriots have to get serious about protecting Drake Maye. It wouldn't be a shock if the Patriots go with defensive tackle Mason Graham or offensive tackle Armand Membou at No. 4, but Campbell is the pick based on the strong odds.
This pick is when the draft market starts to get a little less sure. Jeanty is the favorite and minus odds to go fifth at -300 The Jaguars could go in multiple directions here. Their pick could be Jeanty, or a defensive tackle like Mason Graham, a pass rusher like Jalon Walker, cornerback such as Will Johnson or Jahdae Barron, maybe even a trade down. Jeanty is becoming the popular pick in mock drafts, and the odds are reflecting that.
Ashton Jeanty to the Raiders was the popular thought for a while. Jeanty was a -120 favorite to go with the sixth pick earlier this week. That has changed with Jeanty becoming a big favorite to go fifth. The new favorite to go sixth is Banks at +125. Next is Missouri OT Armand Membou at +200. Getting a top offensive lineman would be prudent for the Raiders.
Last year, many mock drafts had the Jets taking Brock Bowers. They took offensive tackle Olu Fashanu instead and Bowers had probably the greatest rookie season any tight end has ever had. Will that affect New York's thinking when deciding between a tackle like Armand Membou and a tight end Warren this year? The odds flipped to Warren being the favorite in this spot, at +185.
The Panthers need everything on defense. A trade down would make sense, but that also requires finding a team that wants to trade up. The favorite to go eighth for a while was Jalon Walker, but Graham's slide makes him hard to pass up at No. 8. Graham is +180, followed by Walker at +210.
Not long ago, Shedeur Sanders was the favorite at No. 9. Now he's way down the list at +1500. It seems the market doesn't believe the Saints will take a quarterback. Jaxson Dart is +500. Above him is versatile Williams, who is getting a lot of buzz as the draft approaches and is +185 odds to go ninth.
Loveland is not the favorite to go 10th, but in this exercise the favorite (Tyler Warren at +325) as well as the next two players on the list (Ashton Jeanty at +475 and Kelvin Banks Jr. at +550) are all off our board. So we go with Loveland, who is +700. There has been a growing debate whether Warren should be TE1 in the class over Loveland, but perhaps both can go in the top 10. There are 12 players with odds of 20-to-1 or shorter to go 10th overall, and the favorite is getting better than 3-to-1 odds. That indicates nobody has any good idea what the Bears will do. That could be true for most picks in the first round, beyond the top few.
