2025 PGA Championship odds, picks: Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler predictions by Masters-winning model – CBS Sports

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Jason Day’s lone major victory came at the PGA Championship in 2015. Day will enter the 2025 PGA Championship as a more seasoned professional, having won 13 events on the PGA Tour. The 37-year-old has recorded three top-10 finishes this season, which includes a T-8 showing at the Masters in April. Day will be among the top longshots at the 2025 PGA Championship, which gets underway from Quail Hollow in Charlotte on Thursday, May 15. Should Day be included in your 2025 PGA Championship bets, or are you better off backing one of the favorites like Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy?
According to the latest 2025 PGA Championship odds, Scheffler is the +450 favorite, while Day is a 65-1 longshot. Before locking in your 2025 PGA Championship picks or entering any PGA DFS tournaments on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 14 majors entering the weekend, including the 2025 Masters, its fourth Masters in a row, and last year’s PGA Championship and U.S. Open. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting apps like FanDuel, DraftKings and Fanatics. 
Now that the 2025 PGA Championship field is locked in, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
One shocker the model is calling at the PGA Championship 2025: Xander Schauffele, the defending champion and a two-time major winner, barely cracks the top 10 of the leaderboard. Schauffele broke through for his first major title at the PGA Championship in 2024, beating DeChambeau by one stroke. He went on to win the Open Championship at Royal Troon last July, but he hasn’t tasted victory since. 
Schauffele dealt with a rib injury early in 2025 that caused him to miss two months of action. The 31-year-old has recorded just one top-10 finish this season, and he’s been widely inconsistent off the tee, which will be a major issue at a course like Quail Hollow. Schauffele enters the 2025 PGA Championship ranked 158th in driving accuracy (54.17%) and 162nd in strokes gained: off the tee (-0.439). He also ranks outside the top 150 in scoring average (71.04), scrambling (55.80%) and one-putt percentage (38.19%). Schauffele is going off at 19-1 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The model has also locked in its projection for Rory McIlroy, a five-time major winner and the newest Grand Slam champion. McIlroy has racked up 29 career victories on the PGA Tour, including three wins in 2025. He has been red-hot in recent weeks and will enter Quail Hollow full of confidence.
Quail Hollow is a course that seems to fit McIlroy’s eye to perfection. He’s finished on top of the leaderboard four times at Quail Hollow, while also recording a runner-up finish and four other top-10 finishes there. McIlroy’s familiarity with the course, coupled with his recent play, is a big reason why he’s among the top favorites to win the 2025 PGA Championship. 
Meanwhile, the model has examined Scottie Scheffler’s chances of winning his first major outside of Augusta National. His best finish at a PGA Championship came in 2023, when he took second. He also took second at the 2022 U.S. Open and finished seventh at the The Open Championship in 2024. He has registered 19 wins as a professional since turning pro in 2018, including 14 on the PGA Tour.
In 139 career events played, he has made the cut 120 times. Scheffler enters the tournament as the top-ranked golfer on the PGA Tour, and is coming off a win at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, where he won by eight strokes. It was his first win of the season after starting the year sidelined after having shards of glass removed from his hand following a Christmas dinner mishap. See the full PGA Championship projections from the model here.
The model is also targeting four golfers with odds longer than 20-1 who will make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s picks here.
Who will win the 2025 PGA Championship, which longshots will stun the golfing world, and where will Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy finish? Check out the latest 2025 PGA Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 14 golf majors, including the last four Masters and three majors in 2024.
Get full 2025 PGA Championship picks, best bets and predictions here. 
Scottie Scheffler +450
Rory McIlroy +480
Bryson Dechambeau +1000
Ludvig Aberg +1900
Xander Schauffele +1900
Jon Rahm +2000
Collin Morikawa +2100
Justin Thomas +2100
Joaquin Niemann +2800
Viktor Hovland +3400
Jordan Spieth +4100
Brooks Koepka +4400
Tommy Fleetwood +4400
Patrick Cantlay +4400
Will Zalatoris +4600
Hideki Matsuyama +4800
Tyrrell Hatton +5000
Matt Fitzpatrick +5500
Si Woo Kim +5500
Tom Kim +5500
Shane Lowry +6500
Jason Day +6500
Russell Henley +6500
Patrick Reed +7000
Justin Rose +7000
Dustin Johnson +7500
Sungjae Im +7500
Sahith Theegala +7500
Min Woo Lee +8000
Akshay Bhatia +8000
Corey Conners +8500
Cameron Young +9000
Brian Harman +9000
Davis Thompson +9000
Cameron Smith +9500
Wyndham Clark +9500
Sepp Straka +10000
Maverick McNealy +10000
Max Homa +11000
Robert MacIntyre +12000
Nicolai Hojgaard +12000
Tony Finau +14000
Sam Burns +15000
Adam Scott +15000
Rickie Fowler +15000
Billy Horschel +16000
Dean Burmester +16000
Taylor Pendrith +16000
Talor Gooch +16000
Byeong Hun An +16000
Keegan Bradley +17000
Thomas Detry +17000
Stephan Jaeger +19000
Aaron Rai +19000
Nick Dunlap +19000
Keita Nakajima +19000
Harris English +19000
Rasmus Hojgaard +19000
Cameron Davis +19000
Matt McCarty +19000
Nick Taylor +19000
Davis Riley +19000
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