Free agency, Kirill Kaprizov’s future and how new CBA rules could help the Wild keep their superstar – The Athletic – The New York Times

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ST. PAUL, Minn. — Bill Guerin continues to fervently voice confidence that the Minnesota Wild will have no problem getting Kirill Kaprizov’s contract extended this summer.
We’re going to trust him, as well as Wild owner Craig Leipold, who again told me a few days ago that Kaprizov’s extension will get done.
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We’ll trust Kaprizov, too.
The last we talked to him, just after the season, the Wild’s gamebreaker tried to calm everyone’s nerves by saying, “I love everything here. It should be all good.”
Kaprizov said, at the time, that he believes in the Wild’s future.
Still … this is Minnesota.
We worry about everything. Not winning a major men’s pro sports championship since the Bush administration (the father, not the son) will do that to you. It gives us an inferiority complex that everybody wants to leave us.
Who wouldn’t want to play under the bright lights of New York, L.A., Miami and Vegas?
So even though Guerin has instructed everybody not to panic if Kaprizov doesn’t sign on the dotted line as soon as he’s eligible for an extension Tuesday, if Guerin and the Wild can’t set off those proverbial fireworks in the first few days of free agency after so far not making any team-altering trades, we do have to wonder — eh, worry — what the heck Kaprizov thinks of all this.
Don’t, Guerin insisted Saturday.
“I’ve talked to him a number of times,” Guerin said after the Wild closed their draft with five new prospects in the pipeline. “I’ve talked to his agent a number of times. They know the plan. They know what we’re trying to do, and we have the same goal, and that’s to win. Sometimes it just doesn’t happen in one day.”
Guerin’s actually not talking about winning with that last line. He’s talking about adding all the players you want to add.
Yes, the Wild have about $17.7 million to spend this offseason, which includes what it’ll take to re-sign restricted free agent Marco Rossi. But what he’s saying is that with the cap expected to continue to rise in future years, the Wild should have the flexibility to make home-run swings if he and his staff make smart, calculated decisions.
As of now, the trade market hasn’t materialized the way Guerin envisioned. He also can’t invent a bunch of sexy names that don’t exist when the free agent bell rings Tuesday.
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So while fans have every right to expect the Wild to add bigtime players to their arsenal after four years of hearing about dead money and buyout penalties and all those annoying things, if Guerin has to wait for next season to find the right players or even next summer to go after more appetizing fish and avoid tying up cap dollars on lesser players this free-agent class, well, so be it.
That would be the most prudent thing to do.
“The biggest thing is that we’re going to be able to be players in the game again,” Guerin said. “Every year, you see, like, the (Mikko) Rantanen thing. (Matthew) Tkachuk a couple years before that. Like big players do move, and we haven’t been able to be involved in that type of stuff. But if they come up now, we can.”
That’s fair as long as it actually happens, and Kaprizov, himself, understands that.
With all due respect to Marian Gaborik, Kaprizov is the first true superstar in Wild history. If he’s going to invest as much as nine more years of his career in Minnesota, he deserves to and needs to understand the plan.
Guerin said he does, and he’ll continue to communicate with him.
Remember, Kaprizov wants to win. His NHL career started six years later than most players of his pedigree. His extension would kick in at age 29, so if winning a Stanley Cup is as important to Kaprizov as we think it is, he’s going to want to see the path to perennial contention.
Guerin still plans to add a couple of forwards in a few days — probably at least one bottom-six center and perhaps a scoring winger. Possible centers who can win draws and kill penalties include Christian Dvorak, Sean Kuraly, Nico Sturm, Colin Blackwell and Radek Faksa. Possible scoring wingers, as of now, include Brock Boeser, Patrick Kane, Brad Marchand, Nikolaj Ehlers, Claude Giroux and Corey Perry.
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And after trading Declan Chisholm to the Washington Capitals on Saturday, Guerin does want to add blue line depth to a top seven that likely includes youngsters Zeev Buium and David Jiricek.
But when it comes to extending Kaprizov, our gut is the Wild are indeed in the driver’s seat.
He missed half of the season last season with core muscle injuries. Is he really going to risk not signing a deal that could be in the $110 million to $120 million range?
Also, when Leipold said last fall that no team in the NHL can or will be able to offer Kaprizov more money than the Wild, he’s even more correct now.
Terms of the newly agreed-upon collective bargaining agreement have started to leak. The four-year extension begins in the 2026-27 season.
If a player entering the final year of his contract extends before June 30, 2026, league sources said the current rule would still be in effect.
What does that mean?
Starting in 2026-27, players can only re-sign for seven years with their current team and can only sign for six years with another in free agency.
So Kaprizov can re-sign with the Wild for as many as eight years starting this July 1, but he would only be able to sign with another team for six years next July 1 (if he’s not traded by the Wild before).
That means if the Wild were to offer him, say, eight years at $14 million annually ($112 million total) or at $15 million annually ($120 million total) and he turned it down and decided to wait, he would have to get an offer of $18.67 million or $20 million on a six-year term to make those same total dollars.
Similarly, the Wild have largely avoided giving player signing bonuses on Leipold’s watch. But Leipold said last fall that he understands that with Kaprizov, “We may be entering into new territory.”
Well, under the next CBA, signing bonuses are expected to be capped at 60 percent of the total contract value. So if Kaprizov, like many players today, wants most of his contract in annual signing bonuses, he’d also have to sign his extension now.
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For example, Noah Dobson was traded to the Montreal Canadiens on Friday and signed an eight-year, $76 million contract. Dobson will earn $1 million in base salaries annually with $11 million signing bonuses on July 1 in each of his first three years, according to The Athletic’s Chris Johnston.
That wouldn’t fly a year from now under the new CBA.
Same with Sam Bennett’s structure with the Florida Panthers. He re-signed Friday at the tune of eight years and $64 million. According to PuckPedia, he’ll earn eight years of $1 million base salaries with $56 million in bonuses spread across the eight years, starting in a few days at $9.2 million.
Not that the Wild or Kaprizov would want this, but deferred payments in contracts will also no longer be permitted in contracts signed starting July 1, 2026.
So all of this should be good news for the Wild and their fans.
Financially, it makes all the sense in the world for Kaprizov to lock in with the Wild now.
Of course, there’s always a chance that Kaprizov would prefer a shorter-term deal to keep his future options open and further, let’s just say, incentivize the Wild to try to build a perennial winner and not get complacent over the term of his contract.
That, too, could be considered a good thing if it puts pressure on a franchise that has made the playoffs eight times in the past 10 years but has also lost in the first round in eight of the past 10 years.
What may excite Kaprizov beyond the potential external additions to the Wild’s lineup in free agency in a few days is the infusion of youth onto the roster next season.
There’s a chance we could see as many as five young players make the opening night lineup. Buium and Jiricek will have every opportunity to make the team on the back end. Goalie Jesper Wallstedt is penciled in to be Filip Gustavsson’s backup. Skilled forward Danila Yurov is coming over from Russia to make his NHL debut, and it’s time to see if Liam Ohgren can be a full-time NHLer.
With Jonas Brodin having recently undergone surgery and expected to miss the start of the season, we could even see Carson Lambos on the opening night roster.
Guerin is excited about the youthful energy these kids may be able to bring to the team.
“A lot of times those are the guys that can help you get over the edge or over the hump,” Guerin said. “It’s really important that we find these younger players that can make the push — make the lineup but make an impact. Like not just be out there and just get a roster spot.
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“We need guys to come in and make an impact and do something, not just make the team and take a seat in the locker room.
“And I think we’ve got some young guys that are going to be able to do that.”
We’ll soon find out one way or the other what Kaprizov thinks of all this.
Remember, Guerin’s not wrong when he says not to panic if there’s no big Kaprizov announcement Tuesday. Leon Draisaitl’s $14 million-per-year extension with the Edmonton Oilers didn’t get done until September. There’s no rush to get it done July 1.
Could it, though?
“We’ll see,” Guerin said. “I can’t really answer that. Hey, listen, I’d love to have everything locked in and sealed on July 1. I don’t see that happening, but who knows? Kirill’s agent and I have been talking — not just about Kirill but about other things, too. We have an open dialogue, and I would say things are good.”
Pending restricted free agents: Rossi, Michael Milne, Graeme Clarke, Adam Raska, Luke Toporowski.
Pending unrestricted free agents: Gustav Nyquist, Justin Brazeau, Devin Shore, Travis Boyd, Tyler Madden.
Roster hopefuls: Yurov ($950,000), Ohgren ($886,666), Vinnie Hinostroza ($775K), Ben Jones (775K), Hunter Haight ($865,833), Riley Heidt ($950K), Caedan Bankier ($867,500), Cameron Butler ($858,333), Rasmus Kumpulainen ($897,500), Milne, Clarke, Raska, Toporowski.
Pending restricted free agents: Ryan O’Rourke.
Pending unrestricted free agents: Jon Merrill, Cam Crotty, Chase Priskie.
Roster hopefuls: Buium ($966,667), Jiricek ($918,333), Carson Lambos ($863,334), David Spacek ($862,500), Jack Peart ($925K), Kyle Masters ($865,000), Stevie Leskovar ($860,000), O’Rourke.
Pending unrestricted free agents: Dylan Ferguson, Troy Grosenick.
Roster hopefuls: Samuel Hlavaj ($875K), Riley Mercer ($819,167)
Cap charges (including Ohgren, Buium, Jiricek, Wallstedt, Yurov): $75,021,666
Projected dead-cap buyout charges, bonus overages: $2,766,666
Projected salary cap for 2025-26 season: $95.5 million
Projected salary-cap space: $17,711,668 (excludes re-signings)
(Top photo by Jeff Bottari / NHLI via Getty Images)
Michael Russo is a senior writer covering the Minnesota Wild and the National Hockey League for The Athletic. He has covered the NHL since 1995 (Florida Panthers) and the Wild since 2005, previously for the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and Minneapolis Star Tribune. Michael is a five-time Minnesota Sportswriter of the Year and in 2017 was named the inaugural Red Fisher Award winner as best beat writer in the NHL. Michael can be seen on NHL Network; and heard on KFAN (100.3 FM) and the Worst Seats in the House podcast (talknorth.com). He can be found on Instagram and X at @russohockey. Follow Michael on Twitter @RussoHockey

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