Champions League returns: Our writers’ predictions, games to watch and star players – The Athletic – The New York Times

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This is an updated version of an article that was published in August.
The Champions League is upon us again.
After Paris Saint-Germain’s remarkable victory against Inter in May’s final, the tournament’s 71st edition begins in earnest today, with Arsenal’s home game against Athletic Club one of two early kick-offs.
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Our experts break down what they are looking forward to seeing, who could flourish and fail and make their top-eight predictions for the league phase.
Oli Kay: Newcastle vs Barcelona. I was working in a pub in my home town when they played each other in 1997 and Faustino Asprilla scored a hat-trick in a remarkable Newcastle win. St James’ Park is amazing on nights like that, and Eddie Howe will have his team fired up. A big test for Lamine Yamal and his mates on Thursday (although the 18-year-old is a doubt after he took painkillers to play through the last international break with Spain).
James Horncastle: Kairat captain Alyaksandr Martynovich said it would be a dream to play Real Madrid after the Kazakhs, third in their domestic league, knocked out Celtic in the play-offs. His dream came true and Kairat will host the 15-time European champions on September 30. Kevin De Bruyne is also going straight back to Manchester City too… with Napoli on Thursday.
Seb Stafford-Bloor: Liverpool vs Real Madrid at Anfield on November 4. Sorry, let me indulge the cliche: that will be a really interesting test of this new Liverpool side, but also a — air quotes — fabulous night under the lights.
Caoimhe O’Neill: The return of Trent Alexander-Arnold to Anfield is some storyline. But Bayern Munich away at Pafos is dreamy and so is seeing Real Madrid having to travel to Kairat. Both games are on September 30.
Mark Carey: Barcelona vs PSG on October 1. Just think of the quality that will be on show: Yamal, Raphinha, Robert Lewandowski, Pedri et al against the Champions League holders. Come on, that is exciting.
Kay: It is a tough draw for Chelsea who, as well as going away to Bayern Munich in their opening fixture on Wednesday, will face Barcelona, Napoli, Benfica, Atalanta and Ajax. I expect them to get through, but it won’t be easy. PSG have arguably the toughest draw of all the big teams, but they have the quality to deal with that.
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Horncastle: Very early to say, as we have a play-off round and a January transfer window to come. Atalanta are a small club that have played like a big club for almost a decade. Big test for their coach, Ivan Juric.
O’Neill: I’m sure champions of the world Chelsea will be absolutely fine but after a quick scan, they do have one of the more tasty-looking draws.
Carey: It is so difficult to predict how this year will pan out, but Chelsea have a tricky set of fixtures to navigate upon their return to the Champions League. It will be a good barometer of just how far they have come under Enzo Maresca.
Kay: Not a dark horse in the sense of making the round of 16, because the odds are hugely against them, but I would like to think Bodo/Glimt could pull off one or two surprise results.
Horncastle: Galatasaray are the dark horse that throws their jockey, runs through a fence and leaves the race. Victor Osimhen is sticking around and they have picked up Leroy Sane on a free transfer. Fun. As for a proper dark horse, maybe the competition’s greater resemblance to a league will help Antonio Conte at Napoli.
Stafford-Bloor: Eintracht Frankfurt’s front four are not to be taken lightly. It has been reformatted over the summer, with Hugo Ekitike leaving for Liverpool, but Jonny Burkardt has arrived from Mainz, Ritsu Doan has joined from Freiburg, and their combination with Jean-Matteo Bahoya and Can Uzun has looked full of speed, understanding and technical quality. Defensive limitations may limit their progress, but they could bloody a nose or two.
O’Neill: Kairat of Kazakhstan, purely based on location. Jet lag could come in handy for them — their ground is closer to China than it is to neighbouring Russia. To give you an idea of how far away it is: if you were driving the 4,000-plus miles from London, it would take 76 hours. It is a long journey home if you win and even longer if you lose. Just ask Celtic.
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Carey: Marseille have not reached the knockout stage of the Champions League since the 2011-12 season. With Roberto De Zerbi at the wheel, I am intrigued to see how they fare in this format.
Kay: I had heard a lot of good things about Christos Tzolis, the Greek winger at Club Brugge and, sure enough, he excelled as they ran riot against Rangers in the play-off round. For any Norwich City fans reading: yes, that is the same Christos Tzolis who came and went at Carrow Road a few years ago and barely made a ripple.
Horncastle: He’s 30. He’s Slovakian. He’s the least talked-about key player at Napoli. But there are few midfielders in Europe who know how to play fast and slow like the nimble Stanislav Lobotka.
Stafford-Bloor: Raul Florucz, from Union Saint-Gilloise. The 24-year-old Austrian is a new signing from Slovenia’s Olimpija, but he is averaging a goal every 122.5 minutes in the Pro League and looks right at home at a club with a deserved reputation for unearthing prolific forwards.
O’Neill: Rio Ngumoha was only 10 when Liverpool won the Champions League for a sixth time in June 2019. He was born in August 2008, three months after his former club Chelsea lost to Manchester United in the Moscow final. But the year is 2025, and Rio is ready. He scored on his Anfield debut in pre-season, he scored on his Premier League debut and I would not put it past him to score on his Champions League debut either.
Carey: Are we talking about Monaco’s Maghnes Akliouche enough? The 23-year-old is fleet-footed, direct and incredibly graceful on the ball — often dropping a shoulder and cutting inside onto his stronger left foot before driving towards goal. He got 10 league assists last season, too.
Kay: Boring answer: Erling Haaland, as long as Manchester City stay in the competition long enough, which does not seem like the certainty it was in the recent past.
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Horncastle: Raphinha was top scorer last season and I’m tempted to go for him again. But Ekitike has scored three goals in the five games he has played for Liverpool and could be a strong contender.
Stafford-Bloor: Harry Kane looks fitter than he has in a few years and will lead a Bayern attack that, even without the injured Jamal Musiala, looks really, really dangerous.
O’Neill: Joao Pedro has had a vibrant start to life at Chelsea. He could easily rack up a lot of goals in the eight group stage games. Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo also loves a cup competition and, at 26, is now one of Liverpool’s elder statesmen.
Carey: If they go as far as they did last season, PSG’s Ousmane Dembele. The France international will be keen to ensure last season’s otherworldly attacking numbers were not an anomaly — although being sidelined for around six weeks with a hamstring injury will not help his chances.
Kay: I would revert to the group-stage system. The problem was never with the format, but the enormous gap in wealth between the biggest, richest clubs and everyone else. But it will take a lot more than a tweak to address that. That would require a time machine.
Horncastle: Perceived jeopardy was illusory last season. Maybe UEFA should handicap teams based on revenue, benchmarked against the Deloitte Money League. If you come up against a fellow member of the elite, nothing changes. However, if you play a team in the second or third wealth tier, you can only score from outside the opposition penalty area or pass with back heels. Make suggestions in the comments.
Stafford-Bloor: I really liked the group stages. Not necessarily because of the jeopardy, because that was on the wane, but having home and away games allowed friction to develop between clubs and prevented the meandering feel it has acquired under this new format. Eight games — with that play-off safety net — also makes it far too easy to qualify without playing particularly well.
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O’Neill: Give the winning team a trophy. I know the real prize is the European Cup and qualifying for the knockouts, but throw a silly-yet-serious League Phase Super Shield into the mix and see if it adds a little more spice. “Champions League League Phase champions, you’ll never sing that.”
Carey: Why don’t we just double down and have the whole competition as one big league? Every team plays each other once, and whoever comes out on top gets to lift the trophy. Yes, it is unrealistic and, yes, it would mean an even more swollen schedule — but that has not stopped football before.
Kay: Celtic’s and Rangers’ play-off defeats by Kairat and Club Brugge were humiliating, in different ways, but both clubs brought so much to European competition last season. Are the interests of European football best served by a system that forces the champions of Scotland (and Croatia, Serbia, Poland, Ukraine etc) to go through qualifying rounds while England and Spain have a combined 11 teams straight through to the league phase? I would say not.
Horncastle: Life is cruel. So cruel that a former Galatasaray player stopped Fenerbahce from reaching the league phase. Kerem Akturkoglu’s goal for Benfica denied us eight games of Jose Mourinho in the Champions League. That’s eight pre-match press conferences, eight post-match press conferences. Reunions. High jinx. Memes. Well done, Kerem. I hope you’re proud of yourself. (Curiously Akturkoglu then went and signed for Fenerbahce a few days later, in another instance of the Turkish transfer market providing narrative.)
O’Neill: If we have Pafos, how can we be sad? There are football fans who will get to travel to Cyprus to watch their team play in the Champions League this autumn. Imagine in November when the temperature in Cyprus is an average of 23C (73F). Where else would you rather be?
Carey: Manchester Uni… just kidding. Of the Italian sides, I would have liked to see Bologna have another go after last season’s entry for the first time in 60 years. Bologna were in fourth spot as late as Gameweek 33 in Serie A ahead of Juventus, but slipped down to ninth by the end of the season after a winless run in their final five games.
Kay: Barcelona, PSG, Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Liverpool, Tottenham, Manchester City.
Horncastle: Barcelona, PSG, Liverpool, Inter, Real Madrid, Manchester City, Napoli, Chelsea.
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Stafford-Bloor: PSG, Liverpool, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Tottenham.
O’Neill: PSG, Barcelona, Liverpool, Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Real Madrid, Manchester City, Inter.
Carey: Barcelona, PSG, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Liverpool, Inter Milan, Manchester City.
(Top photo: PSG winger Kvaratskhelia celebrates his goal in the Champions League final; Image Photo Agency/Getty Images)
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