Premier League predictions and best bets: Newcastle to storm Old Trafford and beat Manchester United – Sky Sports

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Football Journalist
Friday 26 December 2025 16:57, UK
Our football betting expert Jones Knows called nine out of 10 match results correct last weekend. He is back to offer his insight…
With key attacking absences likely to affect Manchester United’s output, United will be looking towards Matheus Cunha to provide the creative and shooting threat.
Repeatable patterns in betting are something to respect and Cunha’s shooting profile is exactly that. No player since the start of last season has hit the target more often from outside the box than Cunha (31), which tells you this isn’t variance, it’s design. Even more encouraging, four of those outside-the-box shots on target have come in his last two games, highlighting current confidence and freedom in his role.
Away from home, Eddie Howe’s side concede 1.21 shots from outside the box per game across their last 30 away league matches, the third-most of any Premier League team. That’s a defensive concession profile that invites exactly the type of effort Cunha specialises in.
At Evens with Sky Bet for one or more Cunha shots on target from outside the box, you’re not asking for a goal, just a clean connection that troubles the goalkeeper from outside the area.
Manchester City are becoming the punters’ pals again such has been their reliability. It’s seven wins on the spin for Pep Guardiola’s boys who have the scent of Arsenal in their nostrils.
Guardiola is doing things differently too. Once famed for his rotation, over the last eight gameweeks, he has used fewer players (12) in his starting XI than any other Premier League manager. This is providing some great trends to develop across the props markets for us to follow, including the foul-drawing ability of Mathues Nunes for City. He’s lured in nine fouls from the opposition in his last five starts and tops the charts for being City’s most fouled player this season. He’s 6/4 with Sky Bet to draw two or more fouls again.
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Taking the opposition shots lines against Arsenal at The Emirates isn’t usually a betting theory to explore – but under Fabian Hurzeler, Brighton are not a normal team when visiting the elite and the numbers prove it.
When you dig into Brighton’s data against the Premier League’s best in class, the picture becomes very interesting for those of us who like a shots bet when the prices are right.
From 11 games against Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City under this manager’s watch, Brighton have averaged a very impressive 15.8 shots per game to a backdrop of a significantly healthy 1.78 expected goals per game. That is an outrageous output. That is a title-contender chance creation from a side that isn’t sniffing anywhere near a title challenge.
The markets are behind on this curve. We can jump on Brighton to register 10 or more shots at Evens with Sky Bet.
This is a game where it’s hard to get away from the numbers. Let’s hope they don’t lie.
Across Brentford’s last 11 league games at the Gtech, we’re seeing a hefty 3.9 goals per match, which immediately tells you two things: they’re playing front-foot football and they’re far from watertight at the back.
Now add Bournemouth into the equation and the noise only gets louder. Their away games are averaging a remarkable 4.5 goals per match, which is elite-level volatility. Andoni Iraola has fully committed to an aggressive press on the road, and while it creates chances at one end, it leaves them horribly exposed at the other.
If you combine both teams to score and over 2.5 goals you conjure up a 4/5 shot to attack with Sky Bet.
This is the part of the season where experience quietly tilts the balance. Fixtures come thick and fast, preparation time is limited and matches often hinge on game management rather than tactical perfection.
That’s where David Moyes stands out.
Across 58 Premier League matches managed between December 23 and January 8, his teams have posted a 45 per cent win ratio, which is an impressive return during one of the most demanding stretches of the calendar. It points to a manager who understands how to simplify the game when legs are tired and focus shifts from style to substance.
In a game likely decided by fine margins, backing experience, particularly on the touchline, feels like the sensible angle with Evens on offer for an away win.
When you’re playing at Anfield, long spells without the ball are inevitable. And when a team spends most of the game chasing shadows, the foul count usually starts to climb.
That’s the angle that makes Wolves interesting here in a very difficult betting heat. Since Rob Edwards took charge, they’ve been averaging 16.8 fouls per 90 minutes – the most of any team in the Premier League. Teams that expect to suffer tend to foul more, not out of malice, but frustration. And there is plenty of that in the Wolves camp.
Wolves to make the most fouls in each half at 13/8 with Sky Bet is worth a look.
Since Nuno Espírito Santo took charge at West Ham, their matches have taken on a very clear profile. We’re seeing an average of exactly three goals per game, but the more telling metric is the expected goals figure, which sits even higher at 3.3 per match.
That tells you these games aren’t being inflated by freak finishes or red cards, the chances are genuinely flowing at both ends.
Nuno’s West Ham are far more direct and very transition-heavy. They attack quickly, commit bodies forward and are happy to take risks – something the home fans will be demanding in this important and winnable home fixture. The Hammers aren’t trustworthy enough to back outright at 8/5 with Sky Bet but the over 2.5 goals and both teams to score combo at Evens is a price with possibilities.
Aston Villa’s underlying numbers suggest a bit of turbulence ahead. But context matters and this trip to Chelsea is one of those spots where Villa remain very hard to ignore despite the data warnings with 3/1 with Sky Bet on offer to make it 11 wins in a row.
Chelsea still struggle to control games for long periods, especially against teams willing to attack space quickly. That’s where Morgan Rogers comes to the party. Villa’s main man doesn’t need volume, he needs moments – and Chelsea provide plenty of those.
A Villa win with Rogers on the scoresheet isn’t too much to ask. It’s landed in three of his last seven starts, meaning the 8/1 with Sky Bet rates as a value play.
There are certain grounds you simply can’t ignore. The Stadium of Light has become a place where structure, energy and belief do the heavy lifting, and those qualities tend to travel very well through a season. It’s now eight Premier League home games unbeaten, with five wins and three draws and that consistency tells you plenty about what kind of team they are.
With key players away at AFCON, there’s a temptation to downgrade Sunderland. But this is a side built on collective understanding and tactical clarity. Remove a few pieces and the structure still holds – as shown in their excellent performance at Brighton.
Leeds, meanwhile, have struggled badly on the road. Six defeats in eight away games paints a picture of a team that hasn’t yet found a way to control matches outside familiar surroundings.
The market is disrespecting the influence of the Stadium of Light resulting in us being able to back Sunderland on the draw no bet at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
Crystal Palace’s defence is creaking. It’s now 10 goals conceded in their last four games across all competitions. Before that, over the previous 12 matches they’d only shipped eight goals in total. The squad has been stretched beyond its limits and results are now suffering as such.
Spurs have had an eight-day break since their last game – their longest gap between games this season. Thomas Frank is a process-focused, hands-on coach that needs training time to implement his ideas – something he’s not had the luxury of this season. And although Frank’s team have been one of the most impotent teams in the Premier League this season from an attacking perspective, there is quality in that forward line to feast on a Palace defensive process that is offering up more gifts than usual. The away win at 11/5 with Sky Bet is a touch generous.
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