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Football Journalist
Thursday 19 December 2024 23:47, UK
Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide more Premier League insight as he hunts down the value in the markets.
Trying to make sense of the Manchester City demise is like looking at an algebraic equation. It doesn’t make much sense. Yes, a little regression was expected without Rodri but winning just one game in 11 across all competitions? It’s unbelievable.
We’ve got to keep finding betting angles to exploit on City while they remain uncharacteristically woeful. Villa have the direct runners on the counter in Ollie Watkins and especially Morgan Rogers to make big chances happen. The obvious bet then is to play Aston Villa to score two or more goals at 11/8 with Sky Bet as City have conceded at least twice in 10 of their last 11 matches.
Brentford’s conversion rate in front of goal at home is freakishly good. Almost too good to be true. In their eight games so far they have scored 26 goals from their 112 shots, meaning their conversion rate is tracking at 23.21 per cent.
If they continue at this rate it will become the highest on record (since 2003-04) across a Premier League season, with the next best being Manchester City with 18.93 per cent in 2022/23.
Runs of this abnormal nature do usually rectify themselves in time so I’m happy to start backing for this rate to slow dramatically and the goals to dry up somewhat from the Bees at home. Nottingham Forest are the third best defensive team in the Premier League based on goals conceded and expected goals conceded, so this might just be the fixture where Brentford’s unsustainable rate in front of goal hits the buffers. Forest on the draw no bet at 11/10 with Sky Bet looks a big price.
Eddie Howe’s record as Newcastle boss on the road against newly-promoted teams makes his side very easy to fancy here. They have scored 24 goals in those eight games, conceding just five and suffering just one loss – a 1-0 reverse at Luton.
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In five of those games they managed to cover their -1 goal handicap and such are their good vibes following their recent performances against Brentford, Leicester and Liverpool, it’s worth banking on the handicap copping a return again.
There is 15/8 with Sky Bet on offer, meaning we’ll get a payout if Newcastle win by two or more goals.
Brighton are West Ham’s bogey team. It’s a record that makes little sense, but the Hammers have won just one of the last 14 meetings since 2012 and Brighton are unbeaten in all seven Premier League meetings at the London Stadium.
Fabian Hurzeler could do with a positive result and performance as Brighton have looked a little one dimensional and stale of late, winning just two of their last eight and failing to keep a clean sheet in that period.
Conceding seven goals to Fulham, Leicester and Crystal Palace doesn’t inspire much confidence in their defensive process so in a tight game without much value in the outright, Jarrod Bowen to score his 100th career goal makes sense. He is the catalyst for all the good things West Ham do. There is 2/1 with Sky Bet available on his anytime price.
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Since the last international break if you had simply backed every odds-on favourite to win in the Premier League with a £1 stake on the nose, you’d be down £8.80 now.
Shocks are rife and are happening across Europe.
Last weekend Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Juventus, AC Milan, PSV, Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City all failed to win their match despite going off heavy odds-on favourites.
The relentless schedule does explain why lots of these elite teams aren’t near their best. Some players have been playing almost non-stop for 18 months now following the summer’s European Championship and it’s proving to be a bit of a leveller for opposition teams who aren’t having to play manic schedules. I think we could see similar patterns of results over the festive period, so I’m going to be taking on short-price favourites where possible and when the price is right.
Palace showed on Wednesday in the Carabao Cup they have the tools to frustrate and hurt Arsenal. They do really raise it when playing a top-eight team at home, only losing one of the last eight at Selhurst Park and that was a nip-and-tuck game. They can avoid defeat again, with the Palace double chance appealing at 11/8 with Sky Bet.
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The goal rush continues in the Premier League and, when the opportunity arises, backing goals at the right price is a sensible betting strategy. Over the past 49 games, the average goals per game has spiked significantly to 3.39 per game and over 2.5 goals bettors have successfully cashed in 70 per cent of games. Even the 1.5 goals line is being battered by goals, in that 44 of those 49 games have seen two or more goals scored. Even the three all-Premier League Carabao Cup ties on Wednesday night went over 2.5 goals.
Chelsea’s games are averaging 3.52 goals per game in the Premier League this season and the positivity at Goodison Park regarding the takeover of the club could lift the mood to help this game be played at a higher tempo.
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals looks a tempting wager at Evens with Sky Bet.
Can you name me a better left-back in the Premier League than Antonee Robinson? Hard isn’t it. The rampaging Fulham defender offers so much going forward but is also a fantastic one-on-one defender who has quickly become Fulham’s most important and consistent player. No player has made more successful open-play crosses in the Premier League this season and he can also boast that no player has made more overlapping runs in the league.
This is leading to him creating a high volume of chances for his team-mates – he has six assists this season, including two at Anfield last weekend. He’s 100/30 with Sky Bet for another.
Vitor Pereira could be an engaging watch if his Sky Sports News interview when gunning for the Everton job is anything to go by. The Portuguese boss has a history of making instant impacts at clubs, too. On all eight occasions he’s taken over a top-flight club, he’s won that first game in the dugout.
That new manager bounce, added to Leicester’s ropey underlying numbers that point to big overperformance with their results, makes me want to back Wolves here with the 10/11 on the draw no bet standing out with Sky Bet.
Even the 13/8 on the nose for the away win makes appeal, especially if Mads Hermansen, City’s star man this season in goal, doesn’t recover from his groin issue.
Bournemouth have posted the second highest number of shots in the Premier League this season (270) – and only Manchester City (282) have recorded more. This, along with their strong expected goals for numbers (32.96) which are the second highest in the league, shows Andoni Iraola’s football is functioning very nicely from a chance creation point of view.
What is holding it back slightly is the quality of player in forward areas at his disposal, hence why the Cherries record such bulky shot numbers.
A big underperformance in attack when assessing their actual goals return showcases them as a team that needs plenty of chances to find the net, so they are always interesting in the total shots market.
Bournemouth are averaging 16.5 shots per 90 this season and will hold no fear going to Old Trafford to play a team clearly still learning to tie their shoelaces under their manager. It’s going to be a slow and long process for Ruben Amorim to get his philosophies across. Bournemouth to record 14 or more shots at 11/10 with Sky Bet is one of the best bets of the weekend.
It’s hard to argue with Liverpool being as short as 7/10 with Sky Bet here. It’s the right price and I’m expecting them to make this a calm rather than chaotic affair. Arne Slot won’t allow chaos to form in matches, he wants control and we’ve seen so many times this season the Liverpool way of taking the sting out of games at just the right time then being clinical when their chances come. Spurs won’t be allowed to be Spurs if Liverpool get their way.
It doesn’t put me off Dejan Kulusevski to come to this party again though. What a machine he is.
Since playing his new central attacking midfield role that allows him to roam dangerously all over the pitch and lead the Spurs press, his attacking output has become much more consistent than previous seasons. He’s landed for punters backing him for a shot on target in 17 of his last 19 games across club and country and has scored eight times in that run, including four on the spin. His 10/11 shot on target price and 100/30 anytime odds are both of interest with Sky Bet.
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