2025 Kentucky Derby sleepers, odds, free advice, contenders: 3 best longshot picks for Churchill Downs – CBS Sports

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It has been six years since we’ve seen a Triple Crown winner in American horse racing. The last two horses to achieve the Triple Crown, American Pharoah and Justify, have offspring in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field and their connections are all hoping the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree. D. Wayne Lukas is a four-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer and will saddle American Promise, a son of Justify, on Saturday at Churchill Downs in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Despite his pedigree and a 7 3/4-length win in the Virginia Derby in his last prep race, he is a 30-1 longshot in the current 2025 Kentucky Derby odds.
Five of the last six Kentucky Derby winners were at least 13-1 on the morning line, so which 2025 Kentucky Derby longshots should be on your radar? Post time for Kentucky Derby 151 is scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday. Who wins this year’s Run for the Roses and which longshots should you consider to spice up your exactas, trifectas and superfectas? SportsLine’s horse racing experts are breaking down the Kentucky Derby 2025 from all angles.
Handicapper Jody Demling has hit 11 Derby-Oaks doubles in the last 16 years. He’s also nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and predicted the winner of the Preakness 10 of the last 20 years. Anyone who has followed him on those picks on betting sites like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge. You can see Demling’s full projected leaderboard at SportsLine.
Here are three Kentucky Derby longshots to target, according to Demling:
Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. is one of the top riders at Churchill Downs and he used his intimate knowledge of the grounds to help pilot Mystik Dan to a masterful win in the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Mystik Dan came from the No. 3 post to win as an 18-1 longshot in a three-way photo finish over Sierra Leone and Forever Young. Hernandez navigated heavy traffic and squeezed by on the rail before holding off the late chargers for a historic win.
Now, Hernandez teams up with Australian trainer Ian Wilkes, who won the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Classic with Fort Larned and was an assistant trainer when Carl Nafzger won with Street Sense in 2007. Burnham Square was bred to handle this distance and he’s one of the most proven closers in the field with come-from-behind wins in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Blue Grass Stakes. You can bet Burnham Square now at TwinSpires and get up to $400 in bonus bets.
Luxor Cafe is one of two sons of American Pharoah in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field along with Publisher, the Arkansas Derby runner-up and the only horse that qualified without breaking his maiden. While Publisher was racing stateside, Luxor Cafe shipped to Japan just after he was foaled and he qualified with wins in two of the four races on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby.
He bested eventual UAE Derby winner and fellow Derby qualifier Admire Daytona (30-1) twice in Japan and put in his most impressive performance to date in his last race, winning by five lengths at the Fukuryu Stakes. He shipped a bit late to Churchill Downs, but he’s looked fantastic on the paddock and looks like another chance for Japan to pick up its first-ever Derby win after Forever Young finished third by two nose lengths in last year’s three-way photo finish.
Considering his connections and his pedigree, this horse is clearly flying under the radar entering the 151st Run for the Roses. Jockey John Velazquez is a three-time Derby winner, trainer Todd Pletcher has won the first leg of the Triple Crown twice and sire Curlin was third in 2007 before going on to win the Preakness Stakes later that year. He’s only made three starts in his career but looked competitive in his stakes debut despite not getting a clean trip.
“He’ll run well and should like the distance. He was second in the Wood Memorial and raced wide the entire time,” Demling said. Velazquez wasn’t in the mount for the Wood Memorial but does have experience on Grande after guiding him to wins in his first two career starts. 1/ST BET will give you up to $250 in bonus bets for the Kentucky Derby, so you could give Grande a whirl.
Demling is also high on a colossal double-digit longshot who is “generating buzz on the backside” and has revealed his pick to win the 151st Run for the Roses. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard and betting tickets, over at SportsLine.
SportsLine also has Kentucky Derby 2025 picks from long-time horse racing journalist Gene Menez, who gave out last year’s winner Mystik Dan (18-1) as a live longshot. You can also find 2025 Kentucky Derby bets from Michelle Yu, a racing analyst who has already hit winners in multiple prep races this year.
Here are several places to bet on the Kentucky Derby.
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