County Championship season predictions: Why Surrey will not win… again – The Telegraph

Telegraph Sport experts also reveal their picks for player of the season and top run-scorer
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The County Championship seasons begins on Friday and Surrey are red-hot favourites to take the Division One title once again.
Telegraph Sport’s cricket experts predict how the campaign will unfold.
Div 1 winner: Somerset
It has to happen at some point. Matt Henry is a massive signing for the first half of the season and can get the club off to a flyer before the spinners take over in the late summer months although loss of Sonny Baker is a blow. Can they hold their nerve? Surely they have learned from so many near misses.
Relegated from Div 1: Worcestershire and Essex
Remarkable that Worcestershire stayed up last year after the death of Josh Baker and was credit to their enormous self belief and team spirit but it’s an enormous challenge to repeat the feat. Sussex will find the step up hard but it could be one season too many for Essex’s 2017 championship winning core.
Promoted from Div 2: Lancashire and Middlesex
Lancashire are far too strong for division two, Jimmy Anderson will be licking his lips, when back fit. Adam Hollioake and Darren Lehmann should turn around Kent and Northants but Middlesex have Kane Williamson and added experienced Pakistan Test spinner Zafar Gohar as a non-overseas. Canny winter business.
Player of the season: Tom Banton
He matured last season as an all-format player and can really push for an England recall this summer.
Breakout star: Ben McKinney
Hundred on England Lions tour to Australia has put him top of England’s list. Watch out Zak Crawley.
Top run-scorer: Alex Lees
Probably the most formidable English player in the championship now, James Vince has walked away and is unlikely to miss many games, even if Durham remains a tougher place to score runs than down south.
Leading wicket-taker: Dan Worrall
Expect the Aussie to be knocking on the door of Test selection – for England, not Australia…
Div 1 winner: Surrey
Even easier than proclaiming India the most likely winners of a global white-ball tournament. Surrey’s depth – with the bat, in their fast bowling stocks and in their lower order – remains unrivalled, though both Durham and Somerset should challenge them.
Relegated from Div 1: Worcestershire and Warwickshire
Neighbours both face tough asks to remain in Division One. For Worcestershire the loss of seam bowling all-rounder Nathan Smith – to Surrey, naturally – is a major blow.
Promoted from Div 2: Lancashire and Middlesex
Lancashire and Middlesex have a modern Test great apiece, in James Anderson and Kane Williamson, and squads that should prove too good for their rivals.
Player of the season: Liam Dawson
Winning this award requires a player who is not playing overseas leagues during the domestic summer, will not play for England, rarely misses games – and, most importantly, is a terrific cricketer. Liam Dawson, last year’s PCA player of the year (and tip in these pages for this award), fits the bill once again.
Breakout star: Farhan Ahmed
Younger siblings tend to outdo their older siblings on the sports pitch. Most expect that Farhan Ahmed will continue this trend. Last summer, aged 16, the off-spinner took 10 wickets on his County Championship debut against Surrey.
Top run-scorer: Keaton Jennings
Topped 1,000 runs last year in Division One, and should score even more in Division Two – and at a quicker rate than England fans might remember.
Leading wicket-taker: Ollie Robinson
Unwanted by the Brendon McCullum regime, Sussex’s Ollie Robinson retains the mastery of line and length to torment opening batsmen.
Div 1 winner: Durham
Surrey really look no weaker but they were a bit shaky last year and their run has to end at some stage, so I am going for Durham. The emergence of Ben McKinney and signings of Emilio Gay and Will Rhodes make their batting look strong, and Australian bowler Brendan Doggett tore up the Sheffield Shield.
Relegated from Div 1: Worcestershire and Sussex
The Pears were one of the great stories last year, defying comparative lack of resources, floods and the shocking death of Josh Baker to stay. I’m just not sure they have the quality this year. With equal regret, I fear Sussex will join them: their first team is terrific, but the squad looks thin. I really hope I’m wrong because their revival has been terrific and there’s much to like.
Promoted from Div 2: Lancashire and Gloucestershire
Division Two does not look that strong this year. Lancashire should breeze back, but who will join them? Let’s go for the Glosters, buoyed by their Blast win last year, with the West Australian Camerons (Bancroft and Green) beefing up the batting to complement a strong attack full of genuine pace.
Player of the season: Jordan Clark
The heartbeat of this Surrey team who will obviously be there or thereabouts. So consistent with the ball and an absolute firecracker with the bat.
Breakout star: Harry Moore
Big pace-bowling all-rounder is still at Repton School but is highly rated by the England setup, including Andrew Flintoff. Thought to be the best talent to emerge from Derbyshire since Dominic Cork.
Top run-scorer: Keaton Jennings
Such a consistent player, now turning out in Division Two. It would be a great surprise if he does not reach four figures again. Expect Sam Northeast, Dom Sibley and James Bracey to do the same.
Leading wicket-taker: Jamie Porter
I have a feeling at least one of Dan Worrall or Sam Cook’s charge will be halted by an international call-up. Porter has overcome a very slight mid-career dip and takes wickets for fun alongside Cook.
Div 1 winner: Surrey
Yorkshire might threaten, now they have the right leadership, but Surrey have the two aces of batting and seam bowling in depth. Surrey were only beaten last season on two turners… and this year they do not play at Taunton while their game at Southampton is the last.
Relegated from Div 1: Worcestershire and Warwickshire
Worcestershire did brilliantly to defy gravity last season but not again surely with a thin batting line-up. Sussex or Warwickshire to accompany them? I’ll say Warks, too dependent on Tom Latham for runs.
Promoted from Div 2: Lancashire and Middlesex
Lancs to go back up, not least because they have signed a much better overseas batsman in Marcus Harris. Any county bar Derbyshire and Glamorgan could accompany them: Middlesex, as they have result pitches and the Pakistan left-arm spinner Zafar Gohar?
Player of the season: Sam Cook
England’s answer to Scott Boland next winter, having starred on their A tour earlier this year. More and more Australian pitches – Perth on day one, Brisbane under lights, Sydney – are behaving like English seamers, and, never mind the 90 mph quicks, Little Chef is the best exponent on them.
Breakout star: Dillon Pennington
He was about to make his Test debut last summer… until someone had the brainwave of playing Mark Wood in back-to-back Tests against West Indies, the second a dead-rubber. Shades of Stuart Broad as a hostile right arm fast medium.
Top run-scorer: Jordan Cox
He was thwarted by injury when about to make his England Test debut in New Zealand. Batting is usually easier on the blander pitches of Division Two, which will help Ben Compton and Sam Northeast, but Cox will be very motivated – more so than David Bedingham, who has top-scored for Durham but has now sealed his SA Test place.
Leading wicket-taker: Sam Cook
The 10 rounds of the championship with Dukes, four with Kookaburras. I’ll go for Sam Cook, except that England will probably realise they need him in Australia and therefore play him against India this summer. In which case the hardy perennial seamer Olly Hannon-Dalby as Warwickshire pursue results other than draws.
Div 1 winner: Surrey
After comprehensively winning the last three successive County Championships it is hard to look past Surrey when trying to decide who is most likely to win in 2025. Although the club will look different with Alec Stewart taking up an altered role behind the scenes, it is still ultimately the same club, who have been boosted by the return of Kemar Roach, and Dan Worrall qualifying as an England player later in the season as well.
Relegated from Div 1: Sussex and Warwickshire
Although they came up last year looking strong, Sussex in particular might find it difficult to adapt to life in the top tier. For the last few years they have found it hard to hold onto talented youngsters, who have elected to move to other counties for more opportunities. John Simpson was a good addition and enjoyed a good year in 2024, but the step up to the top division is a big one.
Promoted from Div 2: Lancashire and Middlesex
At the start of 2024, Lancashire were among the favourites for the title, and it was a surprise to many how their season turned out. With James Anderson due to open the bowling for at least some of the season, and a strong batting line-up, they have to be among the favourites to rebound straight back up. Middlesex look too strong for the second division, too.
Player of the season: Liam Dawson
Last year for Hampshire, Dawson took 54 wickets at an average of 25.14, while also scoring 956 runs with the bat and averaging 59.75. Although he might not quite have as impressive a year in 2025, he is still likely to be in contention, especially with the use of the Kookaburra ball coinciding with the middle of the summer in June and July which should suit the spinning all-rounder.
Breakout star: Ben McKinney
In 2024, McKinney was selected to captain England at the under-19 World Cup, and before the start of the season had played only 11 first-class matches, but averaged over 37. He is calm under pressure and only signed a first professional deal in 2023, it will be interesting to see how far he can get this year.
Top run-scorer: Alex Davies
Last year, Davies scored more than 1,100 runs in the County Championship, at an average of 50.68. A wicket-keeper batter, Davies is reliable and his form saw him selected for the England Lions’ tour of Australia over the winter.
Leading wicket-taker: Dan Worrall
All the talk surrounding Worrall has surrounded his England eligibility, which kicks in later this year, but he has warranted those conversations by his prowess at Surrey. He is one of the most difficult bowlers to face at the start of the innings, and averaged just 16.15 in the County Championship last year. His experience with the Kookaburra ball should also stand him in good stead when those rounds take place.
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