JMU football’s College Football Playoff dreams are alive after a close win over Marshall. With three regular-season games left and a conference title game, there’s a ton left to determine in the playoff race, though.
Here’s a look at a few results JMU will be rooting for this weekend.
Of course, none of this matters if JMU loses to App State on Saturday at 3:30. The Dukes need to take care of business — and style points don’t hurt — if they want to stay in the conversation. But if you’re like us and enjoy adding a few extra rooting interests to your week of watching college football, enjoy!
Ohio over Western Michigan, 8 p.m.
This likely won’t matter much, buuut it’s fun to have a MACtion rooting interest. If North Texas wins the American at 12-1, one of its better wins will be an overtime win over Western Michigan. The Broncos could win the MAC title with a win over Ohio and two likely wins in following weeks. A loss makes that scenario highly unlikely and gives them a fifth loss on the season, lessening the Mean Green’s resume. Western Michigan is a short home favorite.
Old Dominion over Troy, 7:30 p.m.
The Monarchs are double-digit favorites at home, and the Dukes would benefit from an Old Dominion beatdown. Troy happens to be one of Memphis’ best wins, and ODU is JMU’s best victory. ODU winning out to go 9-3 with losses to JMU, Marshall, and Indiana would strengthen the Dukes’ resume. JMU desperately needs a strong finish from ODU down the stretch. This game is on ESPN, which means the Monarchs could make a national statement if they win big.
Louisville over Clemson, 7:30 p.m.
The Cardinals fell to Cal without star running back Isaac Brown, as the offense was inconsistent and the defense wasn’t good either. That one hurts, but also brings into play an ACC doomsday scenario.
JMU still needs Louisville to finish the season with a solid body of work. Beating Clemson, which is actually ranked ahead of Louisville in ESPN’s Football Power Index, would go a long way toward JMU’s lone loss staying respectable in the eyes of the selection committee.
An ideal scenario for the Dukes is Louisville going 10-2 or 9-3 with a close loss specifically to SMU (more on that later) and missing the ACC title game. In those scenarios and especially at 10-2, the Cardinals could still end the season ranked, but they won’t take one of the five automatic berths into the 12-team playoff field.
Notre Dame over Pitt, noon
There’s a growing possibility — it’s still unlikely — that a pair of G5 champs end the season ranked over the ACC champion. If Pitt loses to Notre Dame this weekend but beats Georgia Tech the following weekend, it throws the conference into complete chaos. Pitt losing here would give the Panthers a third loss, but only one in the ACC. That would keep them in the conference title hunt despite an iffy overall playoff profile. Pitt, like JMU, has a loss to Louisville. Pitt losing big here is the ideal scenario for the Dukes.
Navy over South Florida, noon
USF is the better team on paper, but it’s not easy to beat Navy in Annapolis. The Midshipmen are 5-0 at home this season and run a unique offense that ranks ninth nationally in success rate. The Mids should test USF’s defense, which ranks 62nd nationally in EPA/play.
This game comes down to two questions.
First, will Navy QB Blake Horvath play? He’s one of the top players in the American but missed last week’s blowout loss to Notre Dame with an upper-body injury. He’s expected to return soon, but it’s unclear if that means this weekend or on Thanksgiving against Memphis. If he’s out, it’s hard to imagine Navy keeping pace for 60 minutes.
Second, can Navy get stops? The Midshipmen rank 133rd nationally in defensive EPA/play. USF scores in bunches, averaging 42 points per game. If Navy can force a couple of turnovers and control the ball with its running-focused offense, a high-scoring upset is possible. If Navy’s defense gets overwhelmed, the Bulls could win by 20+.
The weather could also be an interesting factor. It’s supposed to be about 50 degrees Saturday in Annapolis. How will the Bulls handle a cold-ish weather game?
Marshall over Georgia State, 2 p.m.
JMU’s 14-7 win over the Panthers is going to look bad. That’s the reality. But the Dukes’ win over Marshall could look better if the Thundering Herd (4-5) can make a bowl game. Beating Georgia State moves them one win away from securing that sixth win. Marshall winning out and getting to 7-5 would make JMU’s win in Huntington look like the nice road win JMU fans know it is.
UAB over North Texas, 2 p.m.
The Blazers upset Memphis earlier this season. Can they take down another American contender? It’s highly unlikely, but it would knock UNT out of the playoff race.
Duke over Virginia, 3:30 p.m.
JMU fans should root hard for Duke the rest of the year. If the Blue Devils win their next three games, they have a solid chance to play for an ACC title despite having FOUR losses, including to Tulane and UConn. A four-loss Duke team probably isn’t getting in the field over either the American or Sun Belt champs, creating a scenario where two Group of Five teams make the playoff field.
Duke is going to be favored in each of its final three regular-season games.
Boston College over Georgia Tech, 3:30 p.m.
If 1-win Boston College takes down Georgia Tech, it puts the ACC in full disaster mode. For JMU fans, that’s a good thing. Realistically, the Yellow Jackets will win big in this spot, but the Eagles kind of hung around against Michigan State, Cal, Louisville, and Notre Dame. Never say never, right? Ehhh, who are we kidding, don’t watch this game.
Southern Miss over Texas State, 3:30 p.m.
Southern Miss will go 10-2, if it wins its final three games. JMU beating a 10-win team in the league title would be a nice boost for playoff positioning.
ECU over Memphis, 4 p.m.
Memphis probably knocked itself out of playoff contention by losing to UAB and Tulane, but ECU is 4-1 in American Conference games and 6-3 on the season. ECU playing for a league title would help the Dukes, as 12-1 JMU would very likely get into the playoff field over a 3-loss American champ, even with the Pirates’ having three respectable defeats (NC State, BYU, and Tulane). ECU winning the American would be a solid development for the Dukes.
FAU over Tulane, 4 p.m.
Sensing a theme? Any loss by an American Conference contender is good for JMU’s playoff hopes, especially if it comes against a middling opponent.
North Carolina over Wake Forest, 4:30 p.m.
Why the heck does this matter? Well, this comes back to the ACC chaos scenario. Everyone is talking about a 4-loss Duke team winning the ACC, but what happens if 3-loss SMU wins the conference title? I’m not sure that team automatically gets in over JMU — it likely would, but it could be a close call.
One of SMU’s setbacks came to Wake Forest. There’s a path where the Demon Deacons struggle down the finish and turn a 6-3 record into 7-5. If SMU has defeats to Wake Forest, Baylor, and TCU and all have 4+ losses, would that team really deserve a spot in the field even with potential home wins over Miami and Louisville? The committee would have to seriously consider keeping the Mustangs outside the College Football Playoff in that scenario.
Right now, JMU has the 29th best strength of record, per ESPN. SMU’s SOR? It’s 36th. Since SMU has a bye week this weekend, JMU has a chance to win four games the rest of the way. Even if SMU wins the ACC title game, it can only add three more wins. That’s meaningful when it comes to boosting record strength — every win helps the cause. If Wake Forest, Baylor, and TCU keep losing, SMU’s path into the field gets dicey.
Come on, Bill Belichick. Help an underdog out.
Liberty over FIU, 5 p.m.
The Flames choked away a lead against Missouri State in comical fashion, but the Dukes could benefit from the 4-5 Flames at least getting to 6-6 and making a bowl game. Liberty isn’t good, but it’d be a bonus if they avoid a losing record.
Coastal Carolina over Georgia Southern, 6 p.m.
If Coastal Carolina wins, it means the season finale will determine the SBC East winner. It also guarantees the Chanticleers a winning record. That’s probably the preferred result here for JMU, since it would set up an important league game in late November and give the Dukes a chance for a road win against a team with a winning record.
If Georgia Southern wins, however, it moves to 5-5 and one step closer to being a bowl team. There’s a chance JMU ends the season with wins over 5+ bowl teams, which could be a decent selling point for playoff consideration. That’s not horrible either. JMU can frame this result positively either way, but Coastal exiting this game with a guaranteed winning record seems ideal.
Ole Miss over Florida, 7 p.m.
One of USF’s top wins came against Florida. If the Gators finish the year with 8 or 9 losses, that win looks a lot less impressive. The Gators are 3-6 after being blown out by Kentucky.
Utah over Baylor, 7 p.m.
See the SMU logic earlier. The Mustangs could win the ACC with losses to three teams barely in the bowl picture.
Washington State over Louisiana Tech, 10 p.m.
JMU would benefit from the Cougars beating Louisiana Tech and Oregon State in their two remaining games against teams other than JMU. That would move Washington State to 6-6 to end the year, assuming JMU beats the Cougars to give them a sixth defeat.
BYU over TCU, 10:15 p.m.
Another SMU hate watch. Again, a 3-loss SMU with an ACC title probably makes the field, but nothing is guaranteed.
San Diego State over Boise State, 10:30 p.m.
The Mountain West isn’t sending a team to the CFP, but Boise State is one of USF’s signature wins. If the Broncos drop to 6-4, that signature win becomes mediocre quickly.
Photo courtesy of JMU Athletics Communications
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