Kentucky Derby 2025 predictions, horses, time, picks, odds: Best bets by expert who hit last year's winner – CBS Sports

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Three 2025 Kentucky Derby contenders have single-digit odds for Saturday’s race at Churchill Downs. Journalism (3-1), Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1) are all among the favorites in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds. Two of those three have faced off before on a track, as the Street Sense Stakes pitted Sandman and Sovereignty against each other. As you may have gathered from their 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, Sovereignty finished ahead of Sandman and won the race, while the latter placed third. How much should that result influence your 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, if at all?
It’s worth noting that the Street Sense took place at Churchill Downs, which will also host Saturday’s Kentucky Derby 2025. Which factors should you consider when evaluating 2025 Kentucky Derby horses like Sandman and Sovereignty? Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, you’ll want to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks or horse racing predictions.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta, which paid $1,268.20 for $2. In 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.
In May of last year, Menez nailed 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 jackpot. This year, he hit the winner and exacta in the Holy Bull Stakes and the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby. Anyone who has followed him on betting apps like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could have been way up.
For the Run for the Roses, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
One of Menez’ surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Sandman (6-1), even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top 2025 Kentucky Derby favorites. While it’s always impressive to win a G1 race like at Arkansas, that race lags behind several other prep races in terms of producing Kentucky Derby winners. The Arkansas has been around for nearly 90 years but only three horses have won the Arkansas Derby and then went on to win the Kentucky Derby.
Three victories is still three more than Sandman’s trainer and jockey have at The Run for the Roses. Trainer Mark Casse is 0 for 10 with Derby starters, never finishing in the money and having an average finish of 10.8. Meanwhile, jockey Jose Ortiz is 0 for 9 in his Derby career, and while he’s ridden a horse in each of the last four Kentucky Derbies, he has an average finish of 13.5 over this stretch. Sandman is very talented, but with the third-shortest odds there are too many red flags to invest in him with Kentucky Derby 2025 bets. Menez thinks a late charge to a third-place finish is the best-case scenario for Sandman, making him a horse to fade when finalizing how to bet the Kentucky Derby 2025.
Another curveball: Menez is high on Burnham Square, even though he is a 12-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. He’s one of the few horses in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field with multiple graded stakes victories, including a Grade 1 win in the Blue Grass Stakes in his last start. The Blue Grass has produced 23 Kentucky Derby winners, the second-most of any prep race.
Burnham Square has finished in the money in five of six career starts and already has Churchill Downs experience from a maiden race there in November. Burnham Square’s sire, Liam’s Map, won multiple Grade 1 races in 2015, while last year saw the former’s jockey win the Kentucky Derby. Brian Hernandez Jr. rode Mystik Dan to victory in 2024 and is an underrated candidate to go back-to-back with Burnham Square, giving the horse value as one of the potential 2025 Kentucky Derby sleepers. See which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses he likes at SportsLine.
Menez’ top pick is a horse who “is bred to only get better with the added distance.” He’s also high on a double-digit longshot who owns “the most awesome turn of foot of any of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls.” Menez is sharing who he likes over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez’ picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who called Mystik Dan as an 18-1 live longshot in last year’s race.
1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 4 Rodriguez | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 10 Grande | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty 
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