Minnesota vs. New Mexico prediction, odds, spread: 2025 Rate Bowl picks from proven model – CBS Sports

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The 2025-26 college football bowl schedule features a Friday tripleheader, with the 2025 Rate Bowl serving as the middle matchup. It will see the Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-5) facing the New Mexico Lobos (9-3) in the programs’ first-ever meeting. Minnesota is riding an eight-game bowl winning streak, which is the longest active in FBS and tied for the fourth-longest in history. New Mexico enters into the Rate Bowl 2025 on a six-game winning streak as this will be its first bowl game since 2016.
Kickoff is at 4:30 p.m. ET from Chase Field in Phoenix. The Golden Gophers are 1.5-point favorites in the latest New Mexico vs. Minnesota odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points is 44.5, up two points from the opening line. Before making any Minnesota vs. New Mexico picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and it is 31-19 on its top-rated college football money-line picks since the beginning of the 2024 season. 
Now, the model has set its sights on New Mexico vs. Minnesota. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Minnesota vs. New Mexico:
New Mexico vs. Minnesota spread
Minnesota -1.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook
New Mexico vs. Minnesota over/under
44.5 points
New Mexico vs. Minnesota money line 
Minnesota -122, New Mexico +102
New Mexico vs. Minnesota picks
See picks at SportsLine
New Mexico vs. Minnesota streaming 
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After simulating New Mexico vs. Minnesota 10,000 times, SportsLine’s model is going Over on the total (44.5 points). These teams have similar profiles as both tended to engage in high-scoring affairs when traveling. The Over is a combined 8-3 for the squads in road/neutral-site games in 2025. Also, the recent history of this bowl has leaned way over the total as the last two Rate Bowls have each seen 85 combined points scored.
Both squads are solid versus the run but sieves versus the pass. Each allows a completion rate of over 68%, which puts them among the worst seven teams out of the 136 FBS programs. Thus, one can expect both offenses to air it out, which leads to lots of points on the scoreboard. The model forecasts the Over to hit with plenty of points to spare as simulations call for 54 combined points. Thus, the Over hits 70% of the time.
The model also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time. You can see the model’s pick at SportsLine.  
So who wins Minnesota vs. New Mexico, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the New Mexico vs. Minnesota spread to jump on, all from the model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times, and find out.
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