NFL MVP odds: Patrick Mahomes is back, but Baker Mayfield is people’s prince – The New York Times

Sports Betting
Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates after a touchdown against the Detroit Lions at Arrowhead Stadium. David Eulitt / Getty Images
And just like that, Patrick Mahomes is back on top.
With the Kansas City Chiefs’ decisive win over the Detroit Lions on Sunday and the Buffalo Bills’ decisive loss in Atlanta on Monday, Mahomes leapfrogged Josh Allen for the sole spot atop the NFL MVP odds board with +200 odds. After losing to the 3-2 Atlanta Falcons, Allen dropped back to second in the odds for the first time since Week 2, currently sitting at +275.
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But wait — Is that Baker Mayfield’s music!? It’s not just Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans chanting “M-V-P!” in the stands; the odds board has some fresh shine for Mayfield, too. He’s now in third place at +350.
He’s also the most popular bet to make right now. Traders at BetMGM told The Athletic that, since October 6, the day after Tampa Bay’s win in Seattle, Mayfield has been the highest-bet MVP ticket on the sportsbook with a ticket percentage of 46.3 percent and handle (total amount of money) at 44.1 percent.
The closest behind him in popularity since October 6 is Dak Prescott at 9.5 percent (tickets) and 13.6 percent (handle), respectively. Mahomes? He’s sixth on the list with 2.9 percent of tickets and 4.9 percent of the handle. However, that could change as this week goes on.
After this top tier of three, a group of four quarterbacks have odds shorter than +2000: The Detroit Lions’ Jared Goff (+1500), Los Angeles Rams’ Matthew Stafford (+1600), Green Bay Packers’ Jordan Love (+1800) and — record scratch! — New England Patriots’ Drake Maye (+1800).
Here’s a rundown of the top tier in MVP odds heading into Week 7, and some analysis from our Chiefs reporter on Mahomes’ season so far.


Along with the Chiefs’ overall outlook, two-time MVP Mahomes’ odds have steadily improved, from a low of +1900 heading into Week 4 (a 5 percent probability to win it) to +450 last week and now +200 (33 percent) heading into Week 7.
Allen’s odds lengthened slightly from a peak of -105 when the Bills were heading into Week 5 at a perfect 4-0. That implied his likelihood of winning MVP was over 50 percent. His drop to +275 decreased that to a 26.7 percent implied probability.
Mayfield’s +350 odds suggest he has a little over 22 percent probability of winning the award, up from opening at +3000 (around 3 percent) and odds still as long as +2200 heading into Week 5 after Tampa Bay’s loss to Philadelphia. They went on to notch two wins against contenders in Seattle and San Francisco.
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The Bucs have a huge challenge ahead in Detroit for Week 7, and then a breather (Saints in Week 8 and a bye in Week 9) before the gauntlet of New England, Buffalo and Los Angeles Rams, all of whom have QBs in the top ten for MVP, too.
On the flip side, Lamar Jackson, the preseason favorite to win MVP at BetMGM, has fallen drastically down the betting board due to missing time with a hamstring injury. That said, given the issues of the AFC North with the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals both floundering, Lamar might be a good buy-low candidate. If Jackson gets healthy and can somehow lead the Ravens to the playoffs, his MVP stock will skyrocket. If you still believe in Jackson and Baltimore, now is the time to grab those MVP odds at +3500.
Jesse Newell: Patrick Mahomes — even after three consecutive Super Bowl appearances — set specific goals to improve this offseason. And so far, he’s delivered on each item of that checklist while lifting the Chiefs offense toward the top of the NFL. For one, Mahomes vowed to his receivers that he’d become less risk-averse while giving them more opportunities on deep balls. The result has been Mahomes increasing his air yards per attempt by more than 1.5 yards per throw this season, per TruMedia, while moving from 33rd in that stat among QBs all the way to eighth this season. Mahomes is also throwing into smaller creases, per Next Gen Stats, increasing his tight-window-throw percentage from 10 percent in 2024 to a career-high 14 percent this year.
Mahomes has added all these new facets to the Chiefs’ offense while also avoiding the expected downsides that come with riskier play. He has just two interceptions this season — one was a catchable ball that deflected off the hands of tight end Travis Kelce — and has yet to lose a fumble. He has also been one of the league’s top scramblers, while still leading his team in rushing yards (222) through six weeks.
Mahomes has the potential to put up his best statistical season in years, and that should only be helped with the return of top receiver Rashee Rice to the lineup this week following a six-game NFL suspension. If Kansas City continues to trend upward over the next few weeks, it’s certainly not out of the question for Mahomes to further distance himself from the competition in the MVP race, especially given the fact that the Chiefs play so many primetime games. As far as narratives go, Kansas City plays at Buffalo on Nov. 2, and the better QB performer in that contest will boost his MVP case in a matchup most everyone will be watching.
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Hannah Vanbiber is a senior editor at The Athletic. Hannah previously wrote for Gaming Today, New York Sports Day and other sports outlets as a freelance writer. She writes a Substack on pop culture. Follow Hannah on Twitter @HannahVanbiber

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