NFL Week 10 picks against the spread: Daniel Jones, Colts will bounce back in Berlin – The Athletic – The New York Times

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Daniel Jones is coming off his worst game as a Colt, but that doesn't worry us. Justin K. Aller / Getty Images
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The biggest winner of the NFL trade deadline Tuesday was the one we all used to affectionately — OK, ironically — call Danny Dimes.
Daniel Jones will soon be called Danny $100 Million, as the Indianapolis Colts are officially “all in” after trading two first-round picks and a receiver they were mad at for cornerback Sauce Gardner. Which means they won’t be drafting a “franchise” quarterback and will reward Jones for his hot start this season. Jones, on a one-year, $14 million deal, found his mojo and is completing 70 percent of his passes for 2,404 yards and 14 touchdowns.
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Is this a smart move? Who knows? But general manager Chris Ballard decided Year 9 was a good time to be aggressive, so good for him.
Coincidentally, Jones is coming off his worst game of the season — Brian Daboll was probably pointing, screaming and laughing at the TV when watching highlights.
After committing just three turnovers in the first eight weeks, Jones had five in the loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, posting minus-0.3 EPA per dropback after entering with a mark of 0.31 this season. But … good news, I think. All six of his interceptions this season have come with at least six defenders in pass coverage, and this week’s opponent, the Atlanta Falcons, has the fourth-fewest plays this season with at least six defenders in pass coverage.
So, relax. There is no excuse for Jones this week or the Colts this season … or for us not to have our fifth consecutive winning week.
Last week’s record: 8-6 against the spread, 3-2 on best bets
Season record: 65-66-4 against the spread, 24-21 on best bets
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
The Raiders will be waiting a while on owner Tom Brady’s clone to step in at quarterback — you know the dog was a test run — and as for now, they are coming off an emotional overtime loss on a short week and hitting Mile High. Brock Bowers just had a three-TD game (averaging 2.8 yards of separation from the nearest defender on his 12 catches), but the Broncos have allowed the NFL’s second-lowest completion percentage on tight end targets at 59 percent.
The only reason to take the points is that Broncos quarterback Bo Nix hasn’t been showing up for the first three quarters of games. But we’ll go with the other seven or eight reasons.
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The pick: Broncos 
It doesn’t really matter that Indiana Jones is starting to falter, as Jonathan Taylor is due for a big bounce-back week. How due? The Falcons rank 30th in rush defense success rate (51 percent) since the start of Week 4.
On the other side of the ball, Drake London bullied New England Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez last week, and it will be interesting to see how he does against a maybe slightly overhyped Sauce Gardner. Just not 6.5 points interesting …
The pick: Colts 
We swore off the Saints for good last week. They are averaging 287.1 yards per game, their worst figure through nine games since 1998. But … they are getting almost two field goals against a Panthers team that has not only failed to cover the spread in 10 consecutive games as a favorite (over the past four years) but also has lost each game straight up. Hmm. The Saints aren’t bad against the run, and it’s not like the Panthers will get a lot of pressure on Tyler Shough (who, hey, wasn’t terrible in his debut).
The pick: Saints 
The Giants team kind of checked out after Cam Skattebo went down, but Jaxson Dart is still dangerous, and this number seems suspiciously low. Maybe the wise guys are counting on the Bears to look ahead to next week’s Minnesota Vikings game. Or they just think the Bears are an inflated 5-3.
The pick: Giants 
Trevor Lawrence averaged 8.2 yards per attempt in the two 2023 meetings against the Texans and 5.2 yards per attempt in the three meetings since. We don’t care that C.J. Stroud is out for the Texans.
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The pick: Texans 
Last week, I forgot for a second how good the Vikings’ coaching staff is, and that it had extra days to prepare for the Detroit Lions. I am not making that mistake again, plus I think the Vikings will be able to run the ball against the Ravens.
The pick: Vikings
The Patriots are rolling, but they didn’t cover the spread last week, and people are on them again here as the spread is down to 2.5. Drake Maye’s MVP campaign takes a hit, though, against an underrated Buccaneers defense and a fresh Baker Mayfield.
The pick: Buccaneers 
Browns coach Kevin Stefanski turned over play-calling duties, which is never a good sign. Also not good: The Jets traded away their two best defensive players, and their QB can’t throw.
The pick: Browns 
The Bills are coming off their annual huge win over the Kansas City Chiefs and have already jogged through a win over the Dolphins this season. The Dolphins fired their general manager, kept their coach and traded one of the defense’s few good players. Because I can’t pass on this game, Josh Allen improves to 15-2 against the Dolphins and wins by 14.
The pick: Bills 
The Cardinals lost on a last-second field goal in the teams’ first meeting, and they’ve since had a long-overdue soft benching of Kyler Murray. (It has to be soft when he still has a $53 million salary-cap hit next season.) The Cardinals are riding a one-game winning streak, and they can stop the run. They’ll keep it close again.
The pick: Cardinals
If teams really do circle games on their schedules, the Rams have been looking forward to this one after losing to the Niners a month ago. The 49ers had no answer for Kyren Williams’ catching the ball last time, and their blitzes didn’t faze Matthew Stafford, who was 5-of-6 for 33 yards and two touchdowns when rushed. Stafford has been on fire as of late, and his nine touchdowns against the blitz are the most in a two-game span since 2016. Sean McVay gets his revenge.
The pick: Rams 
The secret is out. Marcus Mariota was once decent and plucky, but now he kind of stinks. “Kind of” is our way of being nice. The Lions are also coming off a loss, but you can see why this spread has been moving up all week. If you want to take the Commanders because the Lions might be down a couple of offensive linemen, have at it.
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The pick: Lions 
I’ve been burned by the Steelers’ defense several times this season, and now I am supposed to jump back into T.J. Watt’s arms after it finally showed up against the Colts? OK. Sounds good … but only because the Chargers rank 29th in pressure rate allowed (40 percent) when offensive tackle Joe Alt is not playing.
The pick: Steelers 
The Packers’ two losses have come against the Browns and Panthers. What the heck? I thought Micah Parsons was Lawrence Taylor, and Jordan Love was the next great Packers QB?
The Eagles, meanwhile, made some big trades because they weren’t happy being 6-2. It’s beautiful that Vic Fangio and Jaelan Phillips are reunited. But they can celebrate next week, as I like the home team here. Matt LaFleur and Love tend to get conservative against bad teams, but they’ll let it fly here. Start Christian Watson in fantasy and send over some bourbon next week.
The pick: Packers 
Best bets: We like the idea of home cooking, as we’re going with the Buccaneers, Vikings and Packers to take care of business against the Patriots, Ravens and Eagles. Then, we need our Super Bowl pick, the Lions, to get serious against the Commanders, and we round it out with the Browns, because we think Jets coach Aaron Glenn’s having even less talent is a bad recipe.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): The Falcons missed a PAT late last week for us in this spot. Guess we need to start scouting kickers. We’re all in on the Vikings at +170 against the Ravens.
— TruMedia research courtesy of Jason Starrett. 
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Vic Tafur is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the San Francisco 49ers and the NFL. He previously wrote on the Las Vegas/Oakland Raiders for 15 years for The Athletic and San Francisco Chronicle and covered the Warriors and 49ers before that. He also likes to write about boxing and mixed martial arts. Follow Vic on Twitter @VicTafur

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