NFL Week 7 picks against the spread: Tough sledding for Raiders, Ashton Jeanty continues – The New York Times

NFL Week 7
Ashton Jeanty has gotten the ball plenty this season, but he hasn't had much room to run. Christian Petersen / Getty Images
It’s been hard to put faith in teams with rookie running backs, because it seems like even some of their own coaches don’t trust them.
Four were drafted in the top 40 picks, but not all have emerged as clear-cut starters.
The Cleveland Browns’ Quinshon Judkins (drafted at No. 36), who missed Week 1 because of legal trouble, ranks third in the NFL in yards after contact per rush (3.9). Meanwhile,  fourth-round pick Cam Skattebo and seventh-rounder Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt have been revelations for the New York Giants and Washington Commanders, respectively.
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And then there is Ashton Jeanty, the No. 6 pick. He’s tied for third in the NFL with 119 touches but ranks only 16th in yards from scrimmage (497). On Sunday, Jeanty was stopped for a loss or no gain on four of his 10 runs against light boxes, and overall, the Las Vegas Raiders were stuffed 11 times on 29 attempts — the most of any team in a game this season.
The New England Patriots’ TreVeyon Henderson, picked 38th, is averaging seven carries per game. (The Patriots are the only team that drafted a back in the first two rounds to have a winning ATS record, at 4-2.)
Overall, though, rookie running backs have rushed for 2,863 yards, the most through Week 6 in any season since 2017 (3,866). That was the year of Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, James Conner, Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler and late-bloomer Leonard Fournette.
Jeez, 2017 might have been my last season picking winners. But I was due last week and went 10-5 against the spread. The challenger, Nugget the chicken, went 7-8 ATS and has been let go.
Last week’s record: 10-5 against the spread, 3-2 on best bets
Season record: 41-48-4 against the spread, 14-16 on best bets
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
The Icy Hot Bowl. Aaron Rodgers, 41, can call Joe Flacco, 40, young fella in what is the second-oldest QB matchup ever (Tom Brady and Drew Brees had 84 combined years when they squared off twice in 2020, then again in the playoffs).
I don’t know if the officials were seeing themselves in Flacco last week, but they protected him and let the Bengals hold Micah Parsons on every play. The Steelers will get to Flacco, and there is no way he will be turnover-free for a second week. The Bengals, meanwhile, have zip-zilch-nada defensively other than Trey Hendrickson, who might not play on a short week with a bad back/hip.
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The pick: Steelers 
The Jaguars were exposed a little last week against the Seahawks, but now they get a home game in London, while the Rams have to play at 6:30 a.m. local time. Plus, L.A. could be without Puka Nacua. But … the Rams are even better than you think — they are two plays away from being 6-0. The teacher (Sean McVay) beats the pupil (Liam Coen), and Davante Adams aces the test after slowly building up chemistry with Matthew Stafford.
The pick: Rams 
At some point, Gardner Minshew will look out across the field at his old teammates and shake his head. The Raiders have had three regimes pay really good money for three consecutive veteran quarterbacks who have been abominable. Jimmy Garoppolo only ever grins, but the team’s struggles clearly affected Minshew’s and now Geno Smith’s confidence. Smith has thrown so many interceptions that he’s become gun-shy: He attempted only one pass beyond 10 air yards last week, his fewest in nine years.
His offensive line is bad, and the Chiefs’ pass rush is underrated. We should also mention how the Raiders’ secondary is ill-equipped to deal with the return of Rashee Rice — a national holiday for fantasy owners.
The pick: Chiefs 
Everyone apparently saw Tua Tagovailoa’s finger-pointing news conference, decided the Dolphins are toast and started betting on the Browns. Those people have clearly not seen Browns QB Dillon Gabriel play. And no … no more short jokes from me. Last week, Gabriel fired a ball off the back of a teammate’s helmet on a crossing route, and it wasn’t even one of his five worst throws on the day.
The Browns, behind Judkins, should be able to run the ball against a bad Dolphins defense, but I can’t lay even three points when Myles Garrett and a “great” defense shrivel up when it matters. Cleveland ranks last in opponent red zone touchdown rate (80 percent).
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The pick: Dolphins 
Drake Maye has been awfully impressive — he leads the league in completion percentage on throws of 20-plus air yards at 71.4 percent (the league average is 40.3) — and the Patriots have that Mike Vrabel swagger going in Year 1. Titans rookie QB Cam Ward, meanwhile, has only three passing touchdowns in six games. The good news? The only No. 1 picks with fewer since 1970 were Terry Bradshaw (two), John Elway (two) and Alex Smith (none). Hmm.
I doubt that turns around this week, though, even with a new coach, as the Patriots’ defense is tough against the pass and run, and the players will want to win big for Vrabel in his return to Nashville.
The pick: Patriots 
We thought the Saints would cover 14 straight times for us, but the streak ended at two thanks to dropped passes — one for a TD — and a fumble. They have been fighting hard all year, with three of their losses being close, but it feels like they’ll run out of gas this week against former head coach and Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen. Also, the Bears’ offensive line has improved every week.
The pick: Bears 
The Eagles were supposed to snap out of their funk last week, and the next thing you know, Cam Skattebo is taking off his shirt and screaming. Whether you blame Jalen Hurts, the offensive line, the coaching or even A.J. Brown for their offensive issues, we’ll take Brian Flores and the Vikings’ defense coming off a bye to continue the misery. And we don’t even care who is playing QB for Minnesota — Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison will be open.
The pick: Vikings 
We’ll look back at the moment Garrett Wilson stopped and questioned coach Aaron Glenn on what the heck he was doing before the half last week as the first nail in a one-and-done effort for the rookie coach. Wilson is now out with a knee injury, though it’s not like Justin Fields would get the ball out of his hand and throw it to the wideout anyway. The only chance the home underdogs have is if Fields runs wild, but the Panthers have stopped QBs for no gain or a loss on 44 percent of their rushes, sixth best in the NFL.
The pick: Panthers 
The Broncos’ 30 sacks are tied (with the 2013 Chiefs) for the most through six games in the past 35 years. That means Giants rookie Jaxson Dart will be on the run even more than usual, and the Broncos have allowed 2.3 yards per rush by opposing QBs, fourth best in the NFL. You might think Dart and Skattebo having an extra three days to prepare is good, but they likely enjoyed their New York stardom a little bit and could be in for a rough hangover.
The pick: Broncos 
We should have been 11-4 last week, but the Chargers somehow let the Dolphins drive 82 yards for a touchdown in the final minutes. It’s hard to trust that defense again, especially when it’s going against Peyton Manning Jr.
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Daniel Jones was 9 of 9 for 93 yards and a TD when under pressure last week, and he has a lot of weapons. The Colts’ 194 points are a franchise-best (in the Super Bowl era) through six weeks. Plus, the Colts have a good pass rush, and the Chargers’ offensive line hasn’t been able to steady itself after major injuries … and there is no way the great Kimani Vidal is running for 124 yards again.
The pick: Colts 
The Cowboys’ defense has made Russell Wilson, Justin Fields and Bryce Young look great this season, so Jayden Daniels will have every chance to bounce back from Monday night’s blown win. Especially if Terry McLaurin is back. Oh, and the Cowboys also can’t stop the run. Poor Dak Prescott. The Cowboys are 0-3 when they don’t score 37 points.
The pick: Commanders 
The last time Kyler Murray threw for at least 320 yards and two touchdowns was Oct. 30, 2022. His backup, Jacoby Brissett, did it last Sunday against a good Colts defense. … Are the Cardinals sure they want Murray to rush back from a foot injury?
Actually, it doesn’t really matter. Brissett is on his seventh team because he doesn’t do as well when teams have a week to prepare for him, and Murray hadn’t been able to put two halves of inspired play together over the first five weeks. The Packers’ defense is due for a breakout game, while the Cardinals are due for a breakthrough game after losing four straight games by a combined nine points. Like when water breaks through a leaky roof.
The pick: Packers 
Psst. The 49ers were barely hanging on even before Fred Warner’s injury last week. Since Nick Bosa went down in Week 3, the 49ers’ pass rush ranks 30th in pressure rate (24 percent) and is tied for the fewest sacks in the league with two.
That should allow Michael Penix Jr. plenty of time to find Drake London and Bijan Robinson; that is, when he is not handing the ball off to Robinson, the best running back in the league. The Falcons’ defense, on the other hand, is getting better every week, and we’re not worried about flying cross-country after an emotional win on Monday night. Atlanta won’t be flat again this season after that 30-0 Week 3 loss to the Panthers. Doesn’t matter if Brock Purdy and/or George Kittle are back.
The pick: Falcons 
Baker Mayfield is definitely the MVP … if they gave out a Week 7 award. Sadly, they don’t. And while the Buccaneers are 5-1, their point differential is only plus-14 (The 2-3 Texans, whom the Bucs beat in Week 2, are plus-27). Tampa Bay ranks 24th in scoring defense (25.2 points per game). The Buccaneers’ secondary has taken a step back, and Jared Goff has thrown for a combined 660 yards against it the past two years. Thus, after Monday night, Baker Mayfield will not be the MVP.
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The pick: Lions
Hey, Sam Darnold should get some MVP love. He has been dealing. But while he is third in the NFL in EPA per dropback when using play-action (0.49), the Texans lead the NFL in defensive EPA per dropback against play-action (0.39). It’s tough to pick road teams that can’t block for their quarterback or run the ball, but I still have a soft spot for Houston’s violent defense (and the uncoverable Nico Collins) and think this is a field goal game either way.
The pick: Texans 
Best bets: We like the coaching matchups with the Broncos, Panthers and Patriots over the Giants, Jets and Titans — and we have the defense and QB edges as well. The Lions will bounce back from a loss by covering the spread against the plucky Buccaneers, and the Colts are just better across the board right now than the Chargers.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): I would feel better about the Texans +145 if they would stub out Nick Chubb and let Woody Marks run it, but maybe their defense scores for us.
— TruMedia research courtesy of Jason Starrett. 
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Vic Tafur is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the San Francisco 49ers and the NFL. He previously wrote on the Las Vegas/Oakland Raiders for 15 years for The Athletic and San Francisco Chronicle and covered the Warriors and 49ers before that. He also likes to write about boxing and mixed martial arts. Follow Vic on Twitter @VicTafur

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