Football
Watch Aston Villa vs Wolves, Nottingham Forest vs Brighton, West Ham vs Liverpool and Chelsea vs Arsenal live on Sky Sports this weekend
Football Journalist
Saturday 29 November 2025 22:09, UK
Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League and tips Liverpool and Arsenal both not to win on Super Sunday.
Strip the names away, hide the crests and if this was Team A hosting Team B then Crystal Palace would be odds-on.
Because every measurable facet of Palace’s game carries more structure, coherence and repeatability than anything Manchester United are serving up right now. This is why the 13/10 on offer for a Palace home win is dripping in value.
This isn’t about history. It’s about now. And right now, United play football that resembles a flickering lightbulb: occasionally bright but one bad moment away from plunging a room into darkness.
Palace, under Oliver Glasner, are the opposite. They look like a team. A functioning one. A confident one. A side that knows how to create, how to control.
You’re getting a fantastic price here on a better-drilled side, the clearer identity, the team whose game has weight and repeatability, not a historical brand propped up by recreational money in the markets. Home win.
The value doesn’t live in the traditional markets here as Aston Villa are rightly dominating across the board – it’s hiding where Wolves under Rob Edwards are on the improve and that’s their set piece output. His teams work set plays meticulously.
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His Luton team ranked as the best team in the Championship from set piece goals scored and expected goals output in both spells in that league while his Forest Green side ranked second for expected goals from set pieces during their promotion from League Two.
We’ve already seen signs in one game that Wolves are taking set pieces more seriously after creating 0.77 worth of expected goals from those scenarios in the defeat to Crystal Palace. Ladislav Krejci, who has had 10 shots in his last 10 games, was the main threat and first contact from corners last weekend. He looks a tasty bet at 12/1 with Sky Bet to score.
If there’s one thing betting teaches you, it’s that bad beats are difficult to stomach no matter how long you’ve been in this game for. And last week’s angle, Brentford on the double chance at Brighton – still lingers like a stubborn hangover. The logic was right, the bet looked to be cashing, right up until those football gods decided that Brentford would throw away a 1-0 lead with 10 minutes to go and Igor Thiago would miss a penalty with the final kick.
But here we are again, staring at a very familiar setup. And, yes, I am going back to the well in taking on Brighton in this spot because the well is still overflowing with value. Brighton, for all their fluidity and lovely patterns, simply do not enjoy playing teams who go direct, who turn them.
Under Fabian Hurzeler, Brighton have won 19 of 34 Premier League games when their opponents have played under 15 per cent of passes long, but only two of 16 games otherwise. Forest played 26 per cent of passes long vs Liverpool last week and a similar approach puts them in a great spot of getting another result with the 10/11 on the draw no bet standing out.
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Virgil van Dijk has made nine fouls in his last five games. The imperious, sometimes untouchable defender has gone missing and been replaced by a far scruffier version that is making more mistakes and committing more fouls.
It took 11 games for Van Dijk to reach five fouls at the start of last season – now it looks like he can make five in one game.
That player who glided through matches without needing to lay a glove on anyone is suddenly hacking, grabbing and stepping into late challenges like a man trying to put out fires with a watering can. Playing next to Ibrahima Konate can do that to a player.
His direct opponent Callum Wilson is clever at tempting defenders into awkward contact and picking up soft fouls. Go back two seasons ago and Wilson was drawing 1.6 fouls per 90 in the Premier League and has won five fouls in four starts under Nuno Espirito Santo, who seems to trust him now to be the focal point.
The price of 11/2 with Sky Bet for Van Dijk to make at least two fouls is massive – best price of the season territory. Take the value before the market catches up.
This game stinks of caution.
Those anticipating that one of these teams are going to play “statement-making football” could end up disappointed as these games can turn into an exercise in risk management, especially when you consider the hectic schedule both teams are facing at the moment.
Enzo Maresca and Mikel Arteta are cut from the same cloth when it comes to control and not taking unnecessary risks, especially Arteta in these types of games away from home. Last season, Arsenal won just once away in their eight games with top nine opposition, drawing five of those matches. They’ve been beaten at Anfield this season and came through in gritty fashion at Newcastle in a very nip-and-tuck encounter.
Arteta plays these games like a draw is just fine in the grand scheme of things – and he’s not wrong.
Both teams know that a point keeps the narrative intact. Nothing is lost, everything remains possible. The stalemate, the bet no one wants to back, is the shrewdest way to approach the outright market with 21/10 on offer with Sky Bet.
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