The Rams were due for a letdown and the AFC South is a mess: Our experts’ Week 13 takeaways – The New York Times

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NFL Week 13
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C.J. Stroud and the Texans are in the thick of the AFC South race after upsetting the Indianapolis Colts. Dylan Buell / Getty Images
Each Sunday, three of The Athletic’s NFL writers react to the biggest news, plays and performances from the day’s games.
As of this writing, the top seeds in the NFC and AFC playoffs are the Chicago Bears and the New England Patriots, whose coaches are also the current favorites to win the NFL’s Coach of the Year award. Could it be a Super Bowl Shuffle rematch, 40 years after the Bears beat the Patriots?
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Why not, after a Week 13 in which heavyweights like the Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens all lost, while the once-high-flying Indianapolis Colts fell to the Houston Texans, creating a jumble atop the AFC South.
NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Dan Pompei share their thoughts on a Week 13 in which playoff races tightened as the season’s home stretch approached.
After the Texans upset the Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars dominated the Tennessee Titans, the AFC South now has three teams within a game of each other. Who’s your pick to win the division?
Pompei: The Texans are the most interesting and best team in the division at the moment, with four straight wins including Sunday’s victory over the Colts. They arguably have the league’s best defense, which is a good thing to have in December. If they could get C.J. Stroud playing like he did in 2023, they almost assuredly would be the South’s best. We shouldn’t sleep on the Colts, but they are showing how difficult it is to sustain a superior level of play over 17 games. The season finale between the Colts and Texans will decide the division.
Jones: I’m going with the Jaguars. Despite the maddening inconsistencies that plague Trevor Lawrence, Liam Coen’s team has a lot working in its favor. They have one of the league’s leading rushing attacks. They have an opportunistic defense, which ranks among the league leaders in takeaways. And their remaining schedule plays out pretty favorably. They have two games (Weeks 14 and 17) against the sagging Colts, who have now lost three of their last four games. They also play the Jets (which should be another win), travel to Denver (the toughest test remaining) and close out the season against Tennessee. Houston is surging with four straight wins, but might come up short in its pursuit of the Jaguars. Indianapolis isn’t the same with Daniel Jones hobbled, and the Colts have a mean final stretch (with games against the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers and another game against Houston, plus two against Jacksonville) and seem primed for a dream-killing fizzle.
Nguyen: I thought the Colts could shift their identity into a defensive team with cornerbacks Charvarius Ward and Sauce Gardner locking down opposing receivers, but Gardner was hurt early on Sunday and the Texans were able to create enough explosive plays in the pass game to win. Jones was already falling back to earth before his leg injury, but with his mobility hindered, this Colts offense will be limited. They played an elite Texans defense Sunday, so we’ll see if they can get on track against the Jaguars.
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Both the Texans and Jaguars seem to be getting it together at the right time. The Texans’ offense has limitations but they’re getting chunks in the passing game. If that continues, and with that defense, I think they have a shot at taking the South.
Just when we all crowned the Rams the best team in the NFL, they looked unsteady on both sides of the ball in a 31-28 loss to the Carolina Panthers. Did that shake your faith in Los Angeles as the Super Bowl favorite?
Nguyen: The Rams were playing such good, consistent ball that they were bound for a letdown. I don’t want to take away from the Panthers. They deserve a ton of credit for winning the game, and their offensive line — even with injuries — owned the Rams up front. The three biggest plays in this game were Matthew Stafford’s two interceptions (one in the red zone and a pick six) and his fourth quarter fumble. Stafford had only thrown two interceptions before this game. I don’t think we’ll see too many games in which Stafford is as careless with the ball, so I’m not concerned with the Rams moving forward.
Jones: Every now and then, a quality team has one of those uncharacteristically bad performances and loses to a team it had no business struggling against. That’s what happened to the Rams on Sunday. Stafford threw two interceptions after enjoying a record-setting streak of 28 touchdown passes without an interception. He then had a fumble that snuffed out the Rams’ chances for a game-winning drive. L.A.’s defense also appeared flat and gave up too many big plays, failing to record a takeaway for the first time in five games. Hats off to the Panthers for their performance, but I still believe in the Rams. They’ll get this game out of their system and will probably use it as a wakeup call before gearing up for a strong finish to the season and a deep playoff run.
Pompei: Perhaps the Lombardi Trophy was awarded a bit too early? The Rams had an excellent run and remain one of football’s best. But it’s a long season and most teams slip up here and there, as the Rams did Sunday. We can’t forget the Rams have a number of quality wins, having beaten the Texans, Colts, Baltimore Ravens, Jaguars, 49ers, Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, among others. They will be defined by how they play in December and January, and — they hope — February. This appears to be one of those wide-open seasons in which no clear Super Bowl favorites can be established. We are likely in for some wild surprises.
The Panthers, Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys all have between a 23 and 31 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator. Whose chances do you like best?
Pompei: Over the previous two seasons, the Lions won 20 more games than the Panthers and eight more than the Cowboys. It would be foolish to read too much into the past, but what we can be sure of is the Lions know how to win. They have struggled at times this season to replicate the formulas that served them well in the past, but they remain the best team of this trio, all things considered. The Cowboys have the most momentum, but there are five weeks that could change that. What we don’t know is how all three teams will change over the stretch run, so for now the bet is on the Lions.
Nguyen: The Panthers look to have the easiest remaining schedule and an upcoming bye week to get healthy, but they’ve been up and down all season. They can drop a game to the New Orleans Saints after winning over the Packers at Lambeau Field, and then beat the Rams a few weeks later. I’m not sure if I can trust them down the stretch. The Cowboys’ offense is one of the most well-designed systems in the league and it’s hard stopping their two alpha receivers, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Their defense has improved after trading for Quinnen Williams, but there are still major holes in their secondary. They have a pretty favorable schedule after they play the Lions next week. This is a cheap answer, but I think whoever wins that game will make the playoffs.
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Jones: The Panthers have surprised me, and they do have two stunning upsets against the Rams and Packers, leading Super Bowl contenders. But they’re far too inconsistent. I don’t see them overtaking the Buccaneers for the NFC South title. I feel like Detroit is probably the most well-rounded of these three longshot playoff hopefuls, but catching the Bears and the Packers, who already have the season sweep, could prove challenging. Dallas is intriguing, having reeled off three straight wins and showing improvement on defense thanks to reinforcements added at the trade deadline and the healthy return of some key players. And the way that Philadelphia is looking as of late, the Cowboys just might have a shot at winning the division. So, I’ll give my nod to Dallas.
Yes, it was against the Browns, but the battered 49ers somehow keep winning and are now 9-4 after a 26-8 victory in Cleveland. Could they actually be dangerous in the playoffs, despite all the injuries?
Jones: I do think the 49ers could be dangerous. Because of everything they have been through, I view them as extremely battle-tested. They have proved they can go toe-to-toe with the best of them. They have already split games with the Rams and they have a win over Seattle. They’re a well-rounded, well-coached team, despite a lack of star power on defense because of all of the injuries that they have suffered. Many of their core players have significant playoff experience, and experience really matters when you get to the postseason. So, I won’t count out the 49ers.
Nguyen: It really depends on how much Brock Purdy can continue to heal from the turf toe injury that caused him to miss six weeks. He’s scrambling less, it doesn’t look like he can drive the ball, and his arm strength was already limited before the injury. This offense needs to be elite to make up for all of the defensive injuries, and it won’t be until Purdy is closer to his old self. This team had a lot of playoff experience and brilliant coaches. Coach Kyle Shanahan and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh will be difficult to coach against in the playoffs, but for it to matter, Purdy has to be better.
Pompei: Injuries as significant and numerous as the 49ers have endured tend to show up over time, if not immediately. Shanahan and Saleh have hidden weaknesses so well up to now. It will get harder, but some teams have survived wipeouts. The 2001 Patriots, 2010 Green Bay Packers, and 2011 New York Giants even won Super Bowls despite injury lists that argued their chances were nil. For the 49ers to keep winning, they will need Christian McCaffrey to play better than other teams’ stars, and they will need Purdy to throw clutch passes and lead game-winning drives. It won’t be easy for the 49ers, but they have some special in them.
 
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