Three best NBA player props, odds for Wednesday, April 30: Use Luka Doncic in NBA Playoff picks – CBS Sports

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Game 5 of the Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves series having a clinching scenario attached to it may not have surprised many NBA fans heading into the matchup, but the Lakers facing the win-or-go-home outcome may have. The Lakers duo of LeBron James and Luka Doncic had the second-shortest odds to advance out of the Western Conference entering the NBA playoff bracket, yet they are one loss away from a first-round exit. The Lakers are 5.5-point favorites on Wednesday in the lates NBA odds and James and Doncic won’t make advancing in Los Angeles easy on Minnesota. How should the stakes of this contest affect your NBA player props? Doncic has a total points + rebounds + assists total at 47.5, while James’ over/under is 42.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook, so should you include either of these players in Wednesday NBA prop bets?
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Oh was tempted at taking the Golden State guard’s Over in rebounds (5.5) or assists (3.5) by themselves at plus-money odds at some sportsbooks, but after seeing the current price offered at BetRivers at -118 odds compared to odds in the -135 and -140 range on other betting apps, he sees this as the best play to attack at the moment. Podziemski had five rebounds and five assists and played a series-high 40 minutes in Game 4. Outside of Game 2 where he only played 14 minutes, Podziemski has gone Over this total in two of three games and is averaging 5.7 rebounds and four assists over those three contests.
“We are projecting him for 5.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists in 33 minutes, but he is coming off a 40-minute game and has played 35+ three times and 40+ twice in his last six,” Oh said. “So our 33 minutes (and stats) projection could be low. “
This play is strictly volume-based for Oh. Edwards has protected the ball well this series, averaging 1.5 turnovers per game, but Oh wouldn’t be surprised to see the Lakers end up on the favorable side of some close calls, which could create turnover scenerios for Edwards. The model projects Edwards at 2.8 turnovers and he averaged 3.1 turnovers per game this season. Edwards went Over this turnover number in 26 of 42 road games (61.9%) this season. 
“Unlike our strong confidence that James Harden would go Over his turnover line last night, this one is not tied to our fading the player,” Oh said. “Quite the opposite, we love Anthony Edwards and think he’ll have a great game, but great players with heavy usage playing on the road against mega-superstars who will get a friendly whistle are likely to have a few turnovers on drives that would be called fouls if they were at home.” Bet365 is offering the best odds at -105.
Doncic has an even 50/50 split in going over and under this assists total over the first four games of the series, but in the Lakers’ Game 2 victory in Los Angeles, Doncic had nine assists as his facilitating was integral to the victory. The Lakers face a must-win on Wednesday, so expect a huge workload from Doncic and James could be more aggressive with his shot, leading to more assist opportunities for Doncic. The 26-year-old averaged 7.5 assists over 28 games with the Lakers following the blockbuster midseason trade from the Mavericks.
The model projects Doncic at eight assists on Wednesday. His -114 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook also holds a nice edge over other sportsbooks offering Doncic’s Over 6.5 assists at -125 odds or greater, so this is a play to grab before FanDuel possibly moves its number as well. Doncic averaged 8.1 assists in Dallas’ run to the NBA Finals last season.
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